Discounted Cash Flow Model to Assess Company Value and Risk Considering Potential Synergistic Mergers and Breakups

Traditional discounted cash flow (DCF) models often fail to capture the full value of a business. This is often noticeable when firms sell at unexpected premiums. The discounted cash flow model introduced by Gélinas [1] addresses this gap by incorporating the potential synergies created when a company’s assets are acquired by another firm (DCF_Synergies or 2.0 as the author labeled). This paper extends DCF_Synergies by examining the further added value and risk implications of structuring a business for segmented sales (DCF_Segmented), where different buyers acquire different parts of a firm, unlocking higher synergies than a single buyer could, which could explain even greater acquisition premiums. We also introduce standard deviation analysis to quantify valuation uncertainty and risk in both whole-firm and segmented sales. A numerical example illustrates how breaking a company into parts can result in higher valuation and lower risk-adjusted uncertainty than a whole-firm sale. We also present a recent case study that is consistent with our findings.