新质生产力、经济圈建设与区域经济增长——基于SCM和SDID
New Productive Forces, Economic Circle Construction, and Regional Economic Growth—Based on SCM and SDID

经济圈建设对于中国改革开放与新时代社会主义建设具有极其重要的经济意义与战略影响，同时也是构建以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局的关键举措，对于区域经济增长具有重要意义。新质生产力是摆脱传统经济增长方式，符合新发展理念的先进生产率质态。本研究使用2010~2022年间中国31个省(区、市)面板数据，以成渝经济圈为例，从新质生产力的多个维度视角，采用SCM与SDID方法来评估经济圈建设政策对区域经济增长的影响。结果显示：经济圈建设对区域经济增长有明显正向作用，政策对不同区域经济增长效应有所差异，不同区域的政策的反应时间有所不同，不同新质生产力维度对区域经济增长有所区别，跨区域经济圈建设协同水平仍有待提高。因此要深刻认识和把握新质生产力、经济圈建设与区域增长间的关系，以高质量发展推进中国式现代化。
The construction of economic circles holds extremely important economic significance and strategic impact on China’s reform, opening-up, and the building of socialism in the new era. It is also a key measure in constructing a new development pattern where the domestic circulation is the mainstay, and domestic and international circulations promote each other, which has great importance for regional economic growth. New productive forces represent an advanced productivity state that departs from traditional economic growth models and aligns with the new development concept. This study uses panel data from 31 provinces (autonomous regions, municipalities) in China from 2010 to 2022, taking the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle as an example. From multiple dimensions of new productive forces, the study employs SCM (Structural Causality Model) and SDID (Spatial Difference-in-Differences) methods to assess the impact of economic circle construction policies on regional economic growth. The results show that economic circle construction has a significant positive effect on regional economic growth. The policy effects on regional economic growth vary across regions. Different regions have different response times to the policies. Different dimensions of new productive forces have varying impacts on regional economic growth. The level of coordination in cross-regional economic circle construction still needs improvement. Therefore, it is essential to deeply understand and grasp the relationship between new productive forces, economic circle construction, and regional growth in order to promote Chinese-style modernization through high-quality development.