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Modern Management 2025
基于ISM-BN的海底隧道工程进度风险评估研究
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Abstract:
海底隧道工程作为跨海交通体系的重要组成部分，其建设过程面临地质复杂、环境敏感、技术高难等多重挑战，进度风险管理存在显著特殊性。本文以某大型海底隧道工程为研究对象，聚焦进度风险分析的理论与方法创新，基于解释结构模型和贝叶斯网络模型，构建“风险识别–层级解析–因果推理”的全链条研究框架，旨在解决如何系统识别独特性进度风险因素、量化风险因素的相互作用关系与层级结构以及追溯关键风险致因链并提出精准防控策略的问题。
As a critical component of cross-sea transportation systems, subsea tunnel engineering faces multifaceted challenges during construction, including geological complexity, environmental sensitivity, and technical sophistication, resulting in unique characteristics in schedule risk management. This study focuses on a large-scale subsea tunnel engineering, aiming to advance theoretical and methodological innovations in schedule risk analysis. By integrating the Interpretive Structural Model (ISM) and Bayesian Network (BN), a comprehensive research framework encompassing “risk identification, hierarchical analysis, and causal inference” is developed. The objectives are to systematically identify unique schedule risk factors, quantify their interactions and hierarchical relationships, and trace critical causal chains to propose targeted risk mitigation strategies.
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