基于多元线性回归的国考进面分数影响因素研究
Research on the Influencing Factors of the National Civil Service Examination’s Passing Score Based on Multiple Linear Regression

近几年，在国外经济环境大变动、国内宏观经济增速趋缓与产业结构深度调整的背景下，高校毕业生就业压力显著增强。在“就业难”的压力下，市场化就业岗位增速滞后于人才供给增速，推动大量学生转向体制内岗位以寻求职业稳定性。公务员职业凭借薪酬保障性、福利体系完善性及社会认同度优势，已形成应届生与往届生共同聚焦的“核心就业赛道”国家公务员考试作为我国最具影响力的公共部门选拔机制，其竞争烈度呈指数级攀升。本文通过对2024年度国家公务员考试不同岗位的进面分数进行统计和整理，利用多元线性模型进行线性回归，主要采纳招录人数、岗位所在地、人均收入(万元)、岗位机构层级、学历、政治面貌等12个因素，分析其对公务员考试进面分数的影响，构建相关模型。并通过异方差测试和多重共线性测试来验证模型的可行性，为报考公务员考试的考生和辅导职业规划的公考培训机构提供一定的帮助。
In recent years, under the background of great changes in foreign economic environment, slowing down of domestic macroeconomic growth and deep adjustment of industrial structure, the employment pressure of college graduates has increased significantly. Under the pressure of “difficult employment”, the growth rate of market-oriented employment positions lags behind the growth rate of talent supply, prompting a large number of students to turn to positions within the system to seek career stability. With the advantages of salary security, welfare system perfection and social recognition, the civil servant profession has formed the “core employment track”, which is the focus of both new graduates and former graduates. As the most influential selection mechanism for the public sector in China, the competition intensity of the national civil servant examination is rising exponentially. By collecting and organizing the entry scores of different posts in the National Civil Service examination in 2024, this paper uses a multiple linear model to conduct linear regression, and mainly adopts 12 factors, such as the number of recruits, the location of the post, per capita income (10,000 yuan), the level of the post organization, educational background and political outlook, to analyze their impact on the entry scores of the civil service examination. Construct the relevant model. The feasibility of the model is verified by heteroscedasticity test and multicollinearity test, which can provide some help for the candidates who apply for the civil service examination and the public examination training institutions that guide the career planning.