基于多模型分析的扬州瘦西湖旅游景区可持续发展研究
Research on the Sustainable Development of Yangzhou Slender West Lake Tourist Scenic Area Based on Multi-Model Analysis

在“全域旅游”战略背景下，文化遗产型景区的可持续发展成为学界与行业关注的焦点。扬州瘦西湖作为世界文化遗产和国家5A级景区，面临夜游产品形式单一、文化体验深度不足、智慧旅游应用滞后的挑战。文章基于“需求识别–资源转化–可持续发展”理论模型，采用问卷调查、访谈分析、网络口碑挖掘等混合研究方法，探讨瘦西湖夜游的游客行为特征、服务系统优化与业态创新策略。研究发现：1) 夜间游客消费更倾向于沉浸式文化体验，但当前文化场景构建不完善；2) 游客对导览清晰度(β = 0.73, p < 0.01)、文化活动多样性(β = 0.65, p < 0.01)需求较高，而高峰期设施供给不足显著降低游客满意度(β = ？0.58, p < 0.05)；3) 智慧旅游应用(如AR导览、LSTM客流预测)仍处于初步阶段，Z世代游客(18~25岁)对数字化体验接受度更高，而老年游客更依赖传统导览。基于此，文章提出品牌差异化、智慧旅游优化、生态友好型夜游管理等策略，以提升瘦西湖夜游的可持续发展水平。本研究不仅为文化遗产型景区的夜游管理提供实践指导，也为智慧旅游与文化体验融合提供理论支撑。
Under the strategic background of “All-for-One Tourism”, the sustainable development of cultural heritage scenic areas has become the focus of attention in academic circles and the industry. As a World Cultural Heritage site and a national 5A-level scenic area, Slender West Lake in Yangzhou faces challenges such as the single form of night tour products, the insufficient depth of cultural experience, and the lagging application of smart tourism. Based on the theoretical model of “Demand Identification-Resource Transformation-Sustainable Development”, this paper adopts mixed research methods such as questionnaire surveys, interview analysis, and online word-of-mouth mining to explore the behavioral characteristics of tourists on the night tour of Slender West Lake, the optimization of the service system, and the strategies for business format innovation. The research findings are as follows: 1) Nighttime tourists are more inclined to immersive cultural experiences in their consumption, but the current construction of cultural scenes is still not perfect; 2) Tourists have a high demand for the clarity of the tour guide (β = 0.73, p < 0.01) and the diversity of cultural activities (β = 0.65, p < 0.01), while the insufficient supply of facilities during peak periods significantly reduces tourists’ satisfaction (β = ？0.58, p < 0.05); 3) The application of smart tourism (such as AR tour guides, LSTM passenger flow prediction) is still in its preliminary stage. Generation Z tourists (aged 18-25) have a higher acceptance of digital experiences, while elderly tourists rely more on traditional tour guides. Based on this, this paper proposes strategies such as brand differentiation, optimization of smart tourism, and eco-friendly night tour management to enhance the sustainable development level of the night tour of Slender