青海省人口老龄化对消费水平的影响研究
Research on the Impact of Population Aging in Qinghai Province on the Level of Consumption

居民消费能力有限和老龄化日益严重已成为阻碍经济持续发展的两大关键因素。文章使用2010~2022年青海省老年抚养比、少年抚养比以及居民消费三项指标的时间序列数据，通过协整检验、脉冲响应、格兰杰检验以及方差分解方法，分析影响居民消费的变量和影响程度。研究结果表明：老年抚养比、少儿抚养比和居民消费三者之间存在协整关系；人口老龄化和少儿抚养比均对居民消费存在正向影响效应；且人口老龄化对居民消费的影响会随着时间的持续不断增加。
The limited consumption-ability of residents and the increasingly severe aging of the population have become two key factors hindering the sustainable development of the economy. This paper uses the time series data of three indicators, namely the elderly dependency ratio, the child dependency ratio, and residents’ consumption in Qinghai Province from 2010 to 2022. Through cointegration tests, impulse response analysis, granger causality tests, and variance decomposition methods, the variables affecting residents’ consumption and the degree of influence are analyzed. The research results show that there is a cointegration relationship among the elderly dependency ratio, the child dependency ratio, and residents’ consumption; both population aging and the child dependency ratio have a positive impact on residents’ consumption; and the impact of population aging on residents’ consumption will continue to increase over time.