We model the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) as a cooperative trade game with three national players where Shapley value leads to fair distribution of total trade gains. Based on 2023 figures from International Trade Centre and World Bank, this fair-trade distribution entails annual side payments among the three trading nations, with a total of $118.6 billion accruing to the US based on its large domestic market and greater negotiating power, while retaining the transactional benefits of free trade, unlike actual tariffs. These side payments can be viewed as a form of international Trade Adjustment Assistance (TAA) to disadvantaged US citizens and firms via their government. We model USMCA as both a trilateral game and as three separate bilateral games. In terms of total side payments, the results are the same. We conclude that Shapley fair-trade calculations should be an integral part of the upcoming USMCA renewal negotiations.
References
[1]
Agnew, R. A. (2023). Shapley Value and International Trade. Theoretical Economics Letters, 13, 391-396. https://doi.org/10.4236/tel.2023.133026
[2]
Fasteau, M., & Fletcher, I. (2024). Industrial Policy for the United States. Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009243087
[3]
Khurana, C. (2022). Review of Game Theory Applications in International Trade. International Journal of English Literature and Social Sciences, 7, 196-206. https://doi.org/10.22161/ijels.71.26
[4]
Krapohl, S., Ocelík, V., & Walentek, D. M. (2021). The Instability of Globalization: Applying Evolutionary Game Theory to Global Trade Cooperation. Public Choice, 188, 31-51. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11127-020-00799-1
[5]
Krugman, P. R., & Obstfeld, M. (2003). International Economics (6th ed.). Addison Wesley.
[6]
Mughwai, V. L. (2020). Game Theory and Its Application in International Trade: Use of Strategic Games in Trade Policy. Academic Journal of Economic Studies, 6, 96-101. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/342145292
[7]
Owen, G. (2001). Game Theory (3rd ed.). Academic Press.
[8]
Shanaev, S. (2015). International Trade Globalization Model: Shapley Value and ‘Fair’ Pricing. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2595694