中国城市“鲍莫尔陷阱”解法探究
An Exploration of the Solution to the “Baumol Trap” in Chinese Cities

鲍莫尔陷阱是城市经济发展过程中产生的一种现象。本文以中国不同城市产业鲍莫尔陷阱为切入点，选取2003~2022年中国15个代表性城市面板数据，通过对第二、三产业的劳动生产率对不同城市的鲍莫尔陷阱严重程度进行估测，再对二三产业GDP、二三产业劳动力数、科技支出、教育支出、高校数以及高校学生数与城市鲍莫尔陷阱解决程度之间的关系进行了实证研究。结果显示：选取的15个代表性城市均有鲍莫尔陷阱并呈现出东部程度较轻，中西部较重的状况；不同地区的鲍莫尔陷阱的解决程度也各异，呈现出长三角、京津冀和中部等少数地区解决程度较好，西南、珠三角和东北地区解决情况较差的状况。其中，各产业GDP值和各产业劳动力数量对不同城市鲍莫尔陷阱的解决程度的影响最为显著，且指标值与影响程度呈正相关关系，其他指标对于整体城市并不显著，只对特定城市有一定影响，鲍莫尔病的解决方式具有显著的区域差异性。最后，论文给出了我国城市应对鲍莫尔陷阱的对策建议。
Baumol trap is a phenomenon in the process of urban economic development. This paper takes the Baumol trap of industries in different cities in China as the starting point, selects the panel data of 15 representative cities in China from 2003 to 2019, estimates the severity of the Baumol trap in different cities through the labor productivity of the secondary and tertiary industries, and then estimates the GDP of the secondary and tertiary industries, the number of labor in the secondary and tertiary industries, science and technology expenditure, education expenditure An empirical study was conducted on the relationship between the number of colleges and universities and the number of college students and the degree of solving the Baumol trap in cities. The results show that all the 15 selected representative cities have Baumol traps, which are lighter in the east and heavier in the middle and west; The Baumol trap in different regions also has different degrees of solution, showing that the Yangtze River Delta, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and central regions have better solutions, while the Southwest, Pearl River Delta and Northeast regions have worse solutions. Among them, the GDP value of each industry and the number of labor force in each industry have the most significant impact on the solution of the Baumol trap in different cities, and the indicator value is positively correlated with the degree of impact. Other indicators are not significant for the whole city, only have a certain impact on specific cities, and the solution of Baumol disease has significant regional differences. Finally, this paper gives some suggestions for cities in China to deal with the Baumol trap.