昆明市烤烟大田生育期气温降水的变化特征分析
Analysis on the Variation Characteristics of Temperature and Precipitation during the Growth Period of Tobacco Fields in Kunming City

本文基于昆明市烟叶主种植县(区、市)烤烟种植实际，用气候倾向变化趋势、相关性和距平分析等统计方法，首次对昆明市烟叶主种植区近63年(1961~2023年)，烤烟大田生育期(4月下旬至9月上旬)的气温和降水，分各不同生育期做气温和降水的历史演变及变化趋势分析。结果表明，昆明市烤烟主种植区气温呈显著的上升趋势变化，上升变化倾向率0.018℃/a，通过了(P > 0.01)相关性检验，降水量总体呈微减少趋势变化，变化趋势不显著，未通过(P > 0.10)相关性检验；年代降雨日数呈显著性减少趋势变化，一般性降雨日数的变化不显著，1981~1990降水日数最少。最近30多年大雨、暴雨的降水日数呈较明显增多变化，降水强度和极端性倾向突出。气温距平和K-M曲线突变交汇分析，突变出现的2007年以后，突变发生后气温上升变化显著；降水量K-M曲线出现了5次交汇，2008年后，变化显著；气温“两头低、中间高”，降水前期少，中间适当多，后期少雨的变化特征与清香云烟对气候生境的要求高度吻合。
Based on the actual tobacco cultivation in the main tobacco-growing counties (districts and cities) of Kunming City, this paper uses statistical methods such as climate tendency change trends, correlation analysis, and anomaly analysis to conduct a historical evolution and change trend analysis of temperature and precipitation during the field growth period of flue-cured tobacco (from late April to early September) in the main tobacco planting areas of Kunming City over the past 63 years (1961~2023). The results show that the temperature in the main tobacco planting areas of Kunming City has shown a significant upward trend, with an increasing trend rate of 0.018？C/a, which has passed the (P > 0.01) correlation test. The total precipitation shows a slightly decreasing trend, but the change is not significant and has not passed the (P > 0.10) correlation test. The number of days with rain has shown a significant decreasing trend, while the number of days with general rainfall has not changed significantly. The number of days with precipitation was the least during 1981~1990. In the past 30 years or so, the number of days with heavy rain and rainstorms has increased significantly, with a prominent tendency towards increased precipitation intensity and extreme weather. The anomaly analysis and K-M curve intersection analysis of temperature and precipitation show that a significant mutation occurred after 2007. After the mutation, the temperature increase was significant, and the K-M curve of precipitation intersected five times. After 2008, the change was significant. The temperature pattern of “low at both ends and high in the middle”, and the precipitation pattern of “less in the early stage, appropriate in the middle stage, and less in the late stage” are highly consistent with the climatic habitat requirements of the fragrant Yunnan tobacco.