基于偏离–份额模型的佛山市及禅城区制造业产业发展规划研究
A Study on the Industrial Development and Planning of the Manufacturing Sector in Foshan and Chancheng District Based on the Shift-Share Mode

在粤港澳大湾区战略背景下，制造业作为区域经济发展的关键支柱，其转型升级与高质量发展受到广泛关注。本文采用偏离–份额分析模型，对佛山市及禅城区各行业在全省和全市产业格局中的表现进行深入剖析与比较，揭示了各行业的增长潜力、结构效应及竞争优势。研究发现：1) 佛山市在金属制品、家具制造、汽车制造等行业展现出较强的市场竞争力和增长潜力，而纺织服装、酒饮料及精制茶等传统行业面临增长放缓的挑战；2) 禅城区的制造业也呈现出类似的结构性问题，特别是在金属制品、通用设备制造等领域具备较强的增速优势，而食品制造和文教用品制造等领域的增速相对较低。基于上述分析，本文从产业结构转型、人才引进和对外开放等三个层面提出优化建议，重点强调高端装备制造业的引领作用，推动产业结构的转型升级，延伸产业链条并提升产业集群的竞争力。本研究为佛山市在粤港澳大湾区内构建现代产业体系、推动制造业高质量发展提供了量化依据和政策启示。
Under the strategic framework of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area, manufacturing plays a pivotal role in regional economic development, and its transformation, upgrading, and high-quality development have garnered significant attention. This study applies the Shift-Share analysis model to decompose and compare the performance of various industries in Foshan and Chancheng District within the context of the provincial and city industrial structure, revealing the growth potential, structural effects, and competitive advantages of each industry. The findings indicate that: 1) Foshan exhibits strong market competitiveness and growth potential in industries such as metal products, furniture manufacturing, and automobile manufacturing, while traditional sectors like textiles, apparel, and beverage and tea manufacturing face challenges of slowing growth; 2) Similarly, Chancheng District faces structural challenges in its manufacturing sector, with notable growth advantages in metal products and general equipment manufacturing, while sectors like food manufacturing and educational supplies show relatively lower growth rates. Based on these findings, the paper offers optimization suggestions from three perspectives: industrial structure transformation, talent attraction, and external opening-up. The study emphasizes the leading role of high-end equipment manufacturing, promotes the transformation and upgrading of the industrial structure, and suggests extending the industrial chain and enhancing the competitiveness of industrial clusters. This research provides quantitative evidence and policy insights for Foshan in building a modern industrial system within the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area and advancing the high-quality development of its manufacturing sector.