Evaluation of the Solar Photovoltaic Potential for Electrification of Rural Areas off the National Grid in Mali

Mali, like many countries in the Sahel-Saharan strip, faces critical challenges in terms of access to electricity, particularly in rural areas where a large proportion of the population remains without power. This situation seriously hampers the economic and social development of these regions. Conventional energy solutions, such as thermal power plants, prove unsuitable for remote areas due to the high costs associated with transport and infrastructure. However, with abundant year-round sunshine and some of the highest solar irradiance levels in the world, Mali has remarkable potential to harness solar energy as a promising alternative for electrifying rural areas that have no access to electricity. This study aims to analyze the extent to which photovoltaic solar energy can be a viable solution for electrifying Mali’s rural areas not connected to the national grid, based on an assessment of the country’s solar potential. The aim is to promote the optimal installation of solar photovoltaic power plants in these rural areas deprived of electricity. In the first stage, the suitability of rural communes for hosting solar power plants was studied using a combination of the Geographic Information System (GIS) and the Analytical Hierarchy Method (AHP) to identify suitable communes. In a second step, the electrical energy production generated at each site was evaluated using a formula, integrating data on electricity requirements per commune, solar radiation, surface area available for installation and number of hours of sunshine. The estimated solar potential to cover the electricity needs of the 435 communes selected by the qualitative analysis is 341397.1732 MWH, and the estimated electricity production capacity is 3496960.355 KWh. The evaluation of the available electrical energy potential involved four hundred and nine (409) communes, identified and deemed suitable for solar photovoltaic installations following a quantitative analysis. The results obtained are evaluated at 8.50571*10 + 11 MWh as the theoretical solar potential available in all the selected communes, with an electricity production capacity of 8.5102*10 + 12 kWh. The technical potential represents 50% of the available potential. Overall, the recorded solar potential amounts to 4.25285*10 + 11 MWh, corresponding to a total annual electricity production of 4.2551*10 + 12 kWh. The analysis reveals that the available solar production potential far exceeds the identified electricity needs, leading to the conclusion that Mali has significant potential in terms of solar resources,