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秦岭太白红杉径向生长对气候响应的时间稳定性研究
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Abstract:
随着树轮气候学的发展，研究发现树轮指标在时间上对气候因子的响应存在着不稳定性，即“分异问题(Divergence problem)”：随着全球气候变暖的加剧，树木生长对气候的响应关系会发生改变。本研究基于采样区附近平原、山地气象站共存的现状，首先运用皮尔逊相关分析法探析太白红杉差值年表与气候要素的响应关系，探讨不同站点器测数据对太白红杉(Larix chinensis)树轮–气候响应关系研究的影响，随后优选出相关性最高的气象数据，将气象数据分解成前25年(1960~1984年)与后25年(1985~2009年)两组，判断太白红杉树轮–气候响应的时间稳定性。结果发现：选择不同气象站的气象数据对树轮–气候关系研究会产生影响，太白红杉在不同时间段对气候的响应模式存在显著差异性，印证了秦岭地区树轮–气候响应也存在时间上的不稳定性，即“分异问题”是客观存在的，由此可知，伴随着全球气候变暖，秦岭太白山自然保护区太白红杉的径向生长在不同时间段对于气候要素的响应特征、响应模式存在显著分异。
With the development of dendroclimatology, research has revealed the instability of the response of tree-ring indicators to climate factors over time, namely the “Divergence problem”: as global warming intensifies, the response relationship between tree growth and climate changes. Based on the co-existence of plain and mountain meteorological stations near the sampling area, this study first uses the Pearson correlation analysis method to explore the response relationship between the residual chronology of Larix chinensis and climate elements, and discusses the impact of instrumental data from different stations on the study of the tree ring-climate response relationship of Larix chinensis. Subsequently, the meteorological data with the highest correlation is selected, and the meteorological data is divided into two groups: the early 25-year period (1960~1984) and the later 25-year period (1985~2009) to determine the temporal stability of the tree ring climate response of Larix chinensis. The results show that the selection of meteorological data from different meteorological stations has an impact on the study of the tree ring climate relationship. There are significant differences in the response patterns of Larix chinensis to climate in different time periods, confirming that there is also temporal instability in the tree ring climate response in the Qinling region, that is, the “Divergence problem” objectively exists. It can be seen that with global warming, the radial growth of Larix chinensis in the Taibai Mountain Nature Reserve in the Qinling Mountains has significant differences in response characteristics and response patterns to climate elements in different time periods.
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