塔河碳酸盐岩油藏含水率与自然递减率关系模型研究
Study on the Relationship Model between Water Cut and Natural Decline Rate in the Tahe Carbonate Reservoir

塔河碳酸盐岩油藏作为典型的复杂油气藏，其含水率上升对自然递减率的影响显著。随着开发程度的深入，尤其是缝洞型油藏的高产井，约71%的高产井因含水上升导致产量递减，严重影响油田稳产。本文通过分析塔河碳酸盐岩油藏的实际生产数据，结合油藏工程理论，建立含水上升率对油藏自然递减影响的关系模型，绘制关系曲线。结果表明，塔河碳酸盐岩油藏含水率上升与自然递减率呈显著非线性正相关，随着含水率的增加，油藏的自然递减率呈现加速趋势，主要原因是有效渗透率下降和驱替效率降低，本研究为塔河碳酸盐岩油藏稳产提供了理论依据。
As a typical complex oil and gas reservoir, the Tahe carbonate reservoir exhibits a significant impact of water cut rise on the natural decline rate. With the deepening of development, particularly in fractured-vuggy reservoirs, approximately 71% of high-yield wells experience production decline due to increasing water cut, severely affecting the stabilization of oilfield production. By analyzing actual production data from the Tahe carbonate reservoir and integrating reservoir engineering theories, this study establishes a relational model between water cut rise rate and natural decline rate and then draws the relationship curve. The results reveal a significant nonlinear positive correlation between water cut rise and natural decline rate in the Tahe carbonate reservoir. As the water cut increases, the natural decline rate accelerates, primarily attributed to decreased effective permeability and reduced displacement efficiency. This research provides a theoretical foundation for stabilizing production in the Tahe carbonate reservoir.