The paper deals with the assessment of the seismic hazard of Moldova Republic based on the Eurocode 8 requirements for setting the probabilistic level of seismic effects. Unlike traditional methodologies, this study integrates deterministic elements into the probabilistic framework to enhance the accuracy of hazard estimation. A detailed geometric analysis of the Vrancea focal zone—the primary source of seismic hazard for Moldova—was conducted, and two mathematical models for earthquake intensity were developed. Finally, new seismic hazard maps for the territory of Moldova were created in terms of both of MSK—intensity and acceleration. Compared to previous maps, the new version offers higher reliability and can serve as a foundation for updating the Seismic Regulatory Codes of the Republic of Moldova.
References
[1]
Buné, V.I. and Gorshkov, G.P. (1980) Seismic Zoning of the USSR Territory. Nauka. (In Russian)
[2]
Ulomov, V.I. and Shumilina, L.S. (1999) Problems of Seismic Zoning in Russia. VNIINTPI of the State Construction Committee of Russia. (In Russian)
[3]
Panza, G.F., Cioflan, C.O., Kouteva-Guentcheva, M., Paskaleva, I., Marmureanu, G. and Radulian, M. (2007) Preventive Actions to the Impact of Large Vrancea Events Carried on in the Framework of CEI. 3rd CEI Conference Science and Technology for Safe Development of Life Line Systems, Bucharest, 24-26 October 2007.
[4]
Klügel, J. (2007) Error Inflation in Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis. EngineeringGeology, 90, 186-192. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2007.01.003
[5]
Klügel, J., Mualchin, L. and Panza, G.F. (2006) A Scenario-Based Procedure for Seismic Risk Analysis. EngineeringGeology, 88, 1-22. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2006.07.006
[6]
Costa, G., Panza, G.F., Suhadolc, P., and Vaccari, F. (1992) Zoning of the Italian Region with Synthetic Seismograms Computed with Known Structural and Source Information. Proceeding of 10th WCEE, Madrid, July 1992, 435-438.
[7]
Costa, G., Panza, G.F., Suhadolc, P. and Vaccari, F. (1993) Zoning of the Italian Territory in Terms of Expected Peak Ground Acceleration Derived from Complete Synthetic Seismograms. JournalofAppliedGeophysics, 30, 149-160. https://doi.org/10.1016/0926-9851(93)90023-r
[8]
Panza, G.F., Romanelli, F. and Vaccari, F. (2001) Seismic Wave Propagation in Laterally Heterogeneous Anelastic Media: Theory and Applications to Seismic Zonation. AdvancesinGeophysics, 43, 1-95. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0065-2687(01)80002-9
[9]
Marmureanu, G., Cioflan, C.O. and Marmureanu, A. (2008). New Approach on Seismic Hazard Isoseismal Map for Romania. Romanian Reports in Physics, 60, 1123-1135.
[10]
Lungu, D., Demetriu, S., Aldea, A. and Arion, C. (2006) Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for Vrancea Earthquakes and Seismic Action in the New Seismic Code of Romania. Proceedings of the First European Conference on Earthquake Engineering and Seismology, Geneva, 3-8 September 2006, 1003.
[11]
Vacareanu, R., Lungu, D., Aldea, A., Demetriu, S., Pavel, F., Arion, C., Iancovici, M. and Neagu, C. (2014), Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for Romania. Part III: Seismic Hazard Maps. In: Vacareanu, R. and Ionescu, C., Eds., Proceedings of the 5th National Conference on Earthquake Engineering & 1st National Conference on Earthquake Engineering and Seismology, CONSPRESS, 229-236.
[12]
Simeonova, S.D., Solakov, D.E., Leydecker, G., Busche, H., Schmitt, T. and Kaiser, D. (2006) Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Map for Bulgaria as a Basis for a New Building Code. NaturalHazardsandEarthSystemSciences, 6, 881-887. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-6-881-2006
[13]
Radulian, M., Vaccari, F., Mândrescu, N., Panza, G.F. and Moldoveanu, C.L. (2000) Seismic Hazard of Romania: Deterministic Approach. PureandAppliedGeophysics, 157, 221-247. https://doi.org/10.1007/pl00001096
[14]
Panza, G.F., Kouteva, M., Vaccari, F., Peresan, A., Cioflan, C.O., Romanelli, F., et al. (2008) Recent Achievements of the Neo-Deterministic Seismic Hazard Assessment in the CEI Region. AIP Conference Proceedings, 1020, 402-409. https://doi.org/10.1063/1.2963863
[15]
Oncescu, M.C., Marza, V.I., Rizescu, M. and Popa, M. (1999) The Romanian Earthquake Catalogue between 984-1997. In: Wenzel, F., Lungu, D. and Novak, O., Eds., Vrancea Earthquakes: Tectonics, Hazard and Risk Mitigation, Springer, 43-47. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-011-4748-4_4
[16]
Kanamori, H. (1977) The Energy Release in Great Earthquakes. JournalofGeophysicalResearch, 82, 2981-2987. https://doi.org/10.1029/jb082i020p02981
[17]
Gutenberg, B. and Richter, C.F. (2012) Magnitude and Energy of Earthquakes. AnnalsofGeophysics, 9, 1-15. https://doi.org/10.4401/ag-5590
[18]
Hwang, H.M. and Huo, J.R. (1994). Technical Report NCEER-94-0015: Generation of Hazard-Consistent Fragility Curves for Seismic Loss Estimation Studies. National Centre for Earthquake Engineering Research. University of New York at Buffalo.
[19]
Balan, Ş., Căpăţină, D. and Cornea, I. (1972) The Earthquake of March 4, 1977. 514. (In Romanian)
[20]
Mäntyniemi, P., Mârza, V., Kijko, A. and Retief, P. (2003) A New Probabilistic Seismic Hazard 597 Analysis for the Vrancea (Romania) Seismogenic Zone. NaturalHazards, 29, 371-385. https://doi.org/10.1023/a:1024787621646
[21]
Zaicenco, A., Lungu, D., Alkaz, V. and Cornea, T. (1999) Classification and Evaluation of Vrancea Earthquake Records from Republic of Moldova. In: Wenzel, F., Lungu, D. and Novak, O., Eds., Vrancea Earthquakes: Tectonics, Hazard and Risk Mitigation, Springer, 67-76. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-011-4748-4_7
[22]
Alcaz, V.G. (2007) Methodological Framework for Seismic Hazard and Seismic Risk Assessment in the Territory Republic of Moldova. Elena. (In Russian)
[23]
Eurocode 8 (1994) Design Provisions for Earthquake Resistance of Structures. Part 1-1: General Rules—Seismic Actions and General Requirements for Structures. CEN, European Committee for Standardization.
[24]
Drumea A.V., Stepanenko N.Y., Simonova N.A., Alexeev I.V. and Kardanet V.I. (2009) Atlas of Earthquake Intensity Maps of Moldova (18th-21st Centuries). Elena. (in Russian)
[25]
Wells, D.L. and Coppersmith, K.J. (1994) New Empirical Relationships among Magnitude, Rupture Length, Rupture Width, Rupture Area, and Surface Displacement. BulletinoftheSeismologicalSocietyofAmerica, 84, 974-1002. https://doi.org/10.1785/bssa0840040974
[26]
(2020) ISC-International Seismological Centre (ISC). http://www.isc.ac.uk/iscbulletin/search/catalogue/
[27]
Davis, J. (1973) Statistics and Data Analysis in Geology. John Wiley and Sons Inc.
[28]
Shumila, V.I. (1990) Models of Seismic Intensity Field for Transitional Carpathian Earthquakes in the Vrancea Area. In: Drumia, A.V., Shebalin, N.V., et al., Eds., CarpathianEarthquakeof 1986, Știința Press, 127-133. (in Russian).
[29]
Demetrescu, G. (1941) The Earthquake of November 10, 1940. ScientificMagazineV.Adamachi, 27, 1-17. (In Romanian)
Jianu, D. (1992) Attenuation of Intensity with Distance for Vrancea Intermediate Earthquakes. Proceedings of XXIII General Assembly of European Seismological Commission, 11, 241-250.
[32]
(2024) Seismic Zoning of Romania according to P100-1-2013. http://www.dlubal.com/en/load-zones-for-snow-wind-earthquake/seismic-uni-en-1998-1.html?¢er=45.97997430538993,25.032306121639838&zoom=6&marker=42.5674405419,13.815265106#¢er=45.97997430538993,25.032306121639838&zoom=6&marker=42.5350672313308,12.7825502622648