基于熵权-TOPSIS模型的城市韧性时空格局演变及子系统耦合协调研究——以湖南省为例
Research on the Spatio-Temporal Evolution of Urban Resilience and the Coupling Coordination of Subsystems Based on the Entropy Weight-TOPSIS Model—Taking Hunan Province as an Example

在全球环境不断演变、城市化进程加速以及大流行病频发的复杂背景下，构建韧性城市已成为促进城市长远可持续发展的关键策略与行动方案。为更好地推进湖南省韧性城市的建设，同时助力实现“三高四新”战略目标，本文对2017~2022年湖南省及其下辖14个地州市面板数据进行分析，并基于“经济–社会–生态–基础设施”构建韧性评价体系，综合利用TOPSIS熵权法及耦合协调度模型分析测算城市韧性水平及子系统间耦合协调关系。研究表明：1) 湖南省城市韧性研究初期表现为较低韧性水平，研究末期韧性水平表现为较高韧性水平，韧性水平逐年稳步提升，总体提升跨度大；2) 区域间城市综合韧性分异格局差异较大，东南部城市韧性水平提升较快、水平较高，西部与北部地区的城市在韧性方面的增长态势相对迟缓；3) 各城市子系统间的耦合度整体维持在较高水准，且随着时间的推移，其子系统之间的耦合协调度逐渐从轻度失调、濒临失调的状态渡至勉强协调、中级协调的中级阶段，并最终趋向良好协调的成熟阶段；同时，本文结合当前城市韧性建设要求提出相关建议。
Against the complex backdrop of evolving global environmental conditions, accelerated urbanization, and frequent pandemics, building resilient cities has emerged as a crucial strategy and action plan for promoting long-term sustainable urban development. To better advance the construction of resilient cities in Hunan Province and simultaneously contribute to the realization of the “Three Highs and Four News” strategic objectives, this paper analyzes panel data from 2017 to 2022 for Hunan Province and its 14 prefecture-level cities and prefecture-level cities under its jurisdiction. It establishes a resilience evaluation system based on the “economy-society-ecology-infrastructure” framework and comprehensively utilizes the TOPSIS entropy weight method and coupling coordination degree model to analyze and measure urban resilience levels and the coupling and coordination relationships among subsystems. The research findings indicate: 1) Initially, the urban resilience of Hunan Province exhibited a relatively low level, but by the end of the study period, it showed a higher level, with a steady annual increase and a substantial overall improvement span. 2) There are significant differences in the spatial pattern of urban comprehensive resilience among regions. Cities in the southeast have seen faster and higher improvements in resilience, while cities in the west and north have shown relatively slower growth trends in this regard. 3) The coupling degree among the subsystems of each city remains at a high level overall. Over time, the coupling coordination degree among its subsystems has gradually transitioned from mild and impending imbalance to barely and moderately coordinated stages, ultimately tending towards a mature stage of good coordination. Meanwhile, this paper puts forward relevant suggestions based on current urban resilience construction requirements.