Time Series Analysis of Satellite Data to Characterize Multiple Land Use Transitions: A Case Study of Urban Growth and Agricultural Land Loss in Lusaka

The rapid evolution of land use patterns in Lusaka presents significant challenges for sustainable urban development and resource management. This study employs a time-series analysis of satellite imagery to examine the spatial and temporal dynamics of land use transitions from 1992 to 2024. The research focuses on identifying urban expansion trends, agricultural land loss, and the socio-economic and environmental drivers influencing these changes. By integrating advanced remote sensing techniques and Geographic Information System (GIS) methodologies, the study provides a detailed assessment of land cover transformations and their implications for urban planning. Using a multitemporal dataset of high-resolution satellite images, the study applies cutting-edge image classification algorithms and change detection techniques to generate land cover maps and quantify urban growth. The findings reveal a significant increase in built-up areas at the expense of agricultural land and natural vegetation, highlighting the pressures of population growth, rural-urban migration, and economic policies on land use transitions. Additionally, weak land tenure systems and inconsistent policy enforcement have contributed to the unregulated conversion of agricultural land for urban purposes. Beyond spatial analysis, the study incorporates socio-economic indicators such as demographic changes, infrastructure investments, and policy interventions to contextualize urban expansion trends. Statistical modeling and spatial analysis techniques further identify key drivers of urbanization, including rapid population growth, increased commercial development, and inadequate land governance mechanisms. The results of this study provide valuable insights for policymakers, urban planners, and land managers in developing sustainable strategies to mitigate the adverse effects of uncontrolled urban expansion. Recommendations include strengthening land governance, enforcing zoning regulations to protect agricultural land, and promoting environmentally sustainable urban development practices. Additionally, the methodological framework developed in this research can be applied to other rapidly urbanizing regions facing similar land use challenges.