成都市耕地非农化时空格局演变及其影响因素
The Evolution of Space-Time Pattern and Influencing Factors of Non-Agriculturalization of Cultivated Land in Chengdu City

研究目的：探究2000~2020年成都市耕地非农化的时空格局变化特征以及影响因素，以期为该市制定耕地保护政策和防止耕地非农化提供理论依据。研究方法：以成都市为研究区，利用土地利用数据和社会经济统计数据，采用重心迁移模型、核密度分析以及地理探测器等方法揭示2000~2020年成都市耕地非农化时空分布特征以及影响因素。研究结果：(1) 2000~2020年成都市耕地非农化面积呈现出“增–减–增”的波动上升趋势，耕地非农化面积为126662.76 hm²，非农化率为13.92%。耕地非农化主要转变类型中农村居民点用地占比最大。(2) 耕地非农化面积最大的4个区县依次是双流区、郫都区、新都区和龙泉驿区。耕地非农化重心整体上从锦江区向西南方向迁移12.38 km至武侯区。耕地非农化中部地区高于四周，核密度最大值为678.183，主要集中在锦江区、武侯区、青羊区等中心城区。(3) 地区生产总值、城镇人口以及常住人口是成都市耕地非农化最主要的影响因素，三者解释率分别为89.82%、89.20%、83.69%。研究结论：2000~2020年成都市耕地非农化现象具有显著特征，一方面在时间上呈现波动性，另一方面在空间上有较强异质性，本质上是社会、经济因素综合作用的结果。因此，本文建议通过优化土地利用规划、加强耕地保护执法以及开展农村居民点用地整治等措施治理耕地非农化。
Research objective: To investigate the changing characteristics of the space-time pattern of cultivated land non-agriculturalization and influencing factors in Chengdu City from 2000 to 2020, it is expected to provide a theoretical basis for the city to formulate cultivated land protection policies and prevent cultivated land de-agrarianization. Research Methods: Taking Chengdu City as the study area, using land use data and socio-economic statistics, the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics and the influencing factors of cropland de-farming in Chengdu City from 2000 to 2020 were revealed by adopting methods such as the center of gravity migration model, kernel density analysis and geodetector. Research results: (1) From 2000 to 2020, the non-agriculturalized area of cultivated land in Chengdu City showed a fluctuating upward trend of “increase-decrease-increase”, with the non-agriculturalized area of cultivated land of 126662.76 hm² and the non-agriculturalization rate of 13.92%. The proportion of rural settlement land is the largest among the main types of non-agricultural transformation of cultivated land. (2) The four districts and counties with the largest area of non-agriculturalization of cultivated land are Shuangliu District, Pidu District, Xindu District and Longquanyi District in that order. The center of gravity of cultivated land non-agriculturalization as a whole migrated 12.38 km from Jinjiang District to Wuhou District in a southwesterly direction. Cultivated land non-agriculturalization in the central area is higher than in the surrounding area, and the maximum value of kernel density is 678.183, which is mainly concentrated in the central urban areas such as Jinjiang District, Wuhou District and Qingyang District. (3) GDP, urban population and resident population are the most