基于ARIMA(1,2,1)模型的纺织行业PPI预测研究
Research on PPI Prediction in the Textile Industry Based on ARIMA(1,2,1) Model

本文基于国家统计局官网关于纺织行业2018年01月~2023年12月的工业生产者出厂价格指数(PPI)数据，运用时间序列分析方法构建了ARIMA(1,2,1)模型，并对该模型进行了深入的拟合分析。利用所建立的模型对2024年全年12个月的PPI月度数据进行预测，并将预测结果与实际值进行对比，结果显示预测值的相对误差远低于5%，充分验证了模型具有良好的拟合度和预测精度。此外，在进行未来预测时，需要充分考虑外部因素的影响，并对模型进行适时的调整和优化，以提高预测的准确性和可靠性。
Based on the data of the Producer Price Index (PPI) of the textile industry from January 2018 to December 2023 from the official website of the National Bureau of Statistics, this paper constructs the ARIMA(1,2,1) model using the time series analysis method, and conducts an in-depth fitting analysis of the model. By using the established model to predict the PPI monthly data for the whole year of 2024 for 12 months, and comparing the prediction results with the actual values in detail, the results show that the relative error of the predicted value is far less than 5%, which fully verifies that the model has good fit and prediction accuracy. In addition, when making future predictions, it is necessary to fully consider the influence of external factors and adjust and optimize the model in a timely manner to improve the accuracy and reliability of the prediction.