|
|
近40年西北太平洋登陆热带气旋活动变化趋势及其机制分析
|
Abstract:
本文基于热带气旋(Tropical Cyclone, TC)最佳路径数据集，对1980~2021年期间西北太平洋(Western North Pacific, WNP) TC的生成频数与登陆TC的频数进行了比较。研究发现，尽管过去40年WNP TC总数有显著的下降趋势，但登陆TC数量并无显著趋势。根据登陆区域的不同，将登陆TC路径分为三类：北上转折(C1)、西北行(C2)以及南海西行(C3)三类。结果表明，C1类的频数呈显著增加趋势，C2类的频数变化不显著，而C3类则表现出下降趋势。这三类登陆TC频数的差异主要与台湾岛以东海域的异常气旋性环流以及西太平洋副热带高压(Western Pacific Subtropical High, WPSH)的北移趋势有关。进一步分析显示，尽管C1类和C3类TC的登陆强度及其对陆地的破坏力变化趋势不明显，C2类TC的登陆强度和陆上破坏力却呈显著增加趋势。沿海海面相对温度(Relative Sea Surface Temperature, RSST)的升高、陆地土壤湿度的增加等环境因素，为登陆TC的强度维持及其登陆后的存活提供了有利条件，从而增强了C2类TC的破坏潜力。
This study, based on the best track dataset of tropical cyclones (TCs), compares the genesis frequency of TCs in the Western North Pacific (WNP) with the frequency of landfalling TCs during the period 1980~2021. The results reveal a significant decreasing trend in the total number of TCs in the WNP over the past 40 years, whereas the frequency of landfalling TCs shows no significant trend. Landfalling TC tracks are categorized into three types based on their landfall regions: northward-turning (C1), northwestward-moving (C2), and westward-moving into the South China Sea (C3). The frequency of C1-type TCs shows a significant increasing trend, C2-type TCs remain relatively stable without significant change, and C3-type TCs exhibit a decreasing trend. These variations are mainly associated with anomalous cyclonic circulation east of Taiwan Island and the northward shift of the Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH). Further analysis reveals that while the landfall intensity and destructive power of C1- and C3-type TCs show no significant trend, C2-type TCs exhibit a notable increase in landfall intensity and destructive potential. Environmental factors, such as the rise in relative sea surface temperature (RSST) and increased soil moisture over land, provide favorable conditions for maintaining the intensity of landfalling TCs and extending their survival post-landfall, thereby amplifying the destructive potential of C2-type TCs.
| [1] | 陈光华, 黄荣辉. 西北太平洋低频振荡对热带气旋生成的动力作用及其物理机制[J]. 大气科学, 2009, 33(2): 205-214. |
| [2] | 卢莹, 赵海坤, 赵丹, 等. 1984-2017年影响中国热带气旋灾害的时空特征分析[J]. 海洋学报, 2021, 43(6): 45-61. |
| [3] | Mendelsohn, R., Emanuel, K., Chonabayashi, S. and Bakkensen, L. (2012) The Impact of Climate Change on Global Tropical Cyclone Damage. Nature Climate Change, 2, 205-209. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1357 |
| [4] | Kossin, J.P., Emanuel, K.A. and Vecchi, G.A. (2014) The Poleward Migration of the Location of Tropical Cyclone Maximum Intensity. Nature, 509, 349-352. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature13278 |
| [5] | Song, J. and Klotzbach, P.J. (2018) What Has Controlled the Poleward Migration of Annual Averaged Location of Tropical Cyclone Lifetime Maximum Intensity over the Western North Pacific since 1961? Geophysical Research Letters, 45, 1148-1156. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017gl076883 |
| [6] | Daloz, A.S. and Camargo, S.J. (2017) Is the Poleward Migration of Tropical Cyclone Maximum Intensity Associated with a Poleward Migration of Tropical Cyclone Genesis? Climate Dynamics, 50, 705-715. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3636-7 |
| [7] | Sharmila, S. and Walsh, K.J.E. (2018) Recent Poleward Shift of Tropical Cyclone Formation Linked to Hadley Cell Expansion. Nature Climate Change, 8, 730-736. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0227-5 |
| [8] | Studholme, J. and Gulev, S. (2018) Concurrent Changes to Hadley Circulation and the Meridional Distribution of Tropical Cyclones. Journal of Climate, 31, 4367-4389. https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-17-0852.1 |
| [9] | Shan, K. and Yu, X. (2020) Enhanced Understanding of Poleward Migration of Tropical Cyclone Genesis. Environmental Research Letters, 15, Article ID: 104062. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abaf85 |
| [10] | Zhan, R. and Wang, Y. (2017) Weak Tropical Cyclones Dominate the Poleward Migration of the Annual Mean Location of Lifetime Maximum Intensity of Northwest Pacific Tropical Cyclones since 1980. Journal of Climate, 30, 6873-6882. https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-17-0019.1 |
| [11] | Shan, K. and Yu, X. (2021) Variability of Tropical Cyclone Landfalls in China. Journal of Climate, 34, 9235-9247. https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-21-0031.1 |
| [12] | Li, G., Li, Q., Zhao, W., Zhou, G., Qian, Q., Qian, C., et al. (2022) Enhanced Understanding of Changes in Tropical Cyclones’ Landfall Frequency over Mainland China. Frontiers in Earth Science, 10, Article ID: 932843. https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2022.932843 |
| [13] | Zhao, J., Zhan, R., Wang, Y. and Xu, H. (2018) Contribution of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation to the Recent Abrupt Decrease in Tropical Cyclone Genesis Frequency over the Western North Pacific since 1998. Journal of Climate, 31, 8211-8224. https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-18-0202.1 |
| [14] | Wu, Q., Wang, X. and Tao, L. (2020) Interannual and Interdecadal Impact of Western North Pacific Subtropical High on Tropical Cyclone Activity. Climate Dynamics, 54, 2237-2248. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-05110-7 |
| [15] | Wu, L. and Wang, B. (2004) Assessing Impacts of Global Warming on Tropical Cyclone Tracks. Journal of Climate, 17, 1686-1698. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<1686:aiogwo>2.0.co;2 |
| [16] | Sun, J., Wang, D., Hu, X., Ling, Z. and Wang, L. (2019) Ongoing Poleward Migration of Tropical Cyclone Occurrence over the Western North Pacific Ocean. Geophysical Research Letters, 46, 9110-9117. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019gl084260 |
| [17] | Emanuel, K. (2005) Increasing Destructiveness of Tropical Cyclones over the Past 30 Years. Nature, 436, 686-688. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature03906 |
| [18] | 那莹, 王冀, 张英娟, 等. 分段副热带高压位置指数的建立及应用[J]. 气象, 2022, 48(11): 1439-1448. |
| [19] | Chen, T., Chen, S., Zhou, M., Tu, C., Zhang, A., Chen, Y., et al. (2022) Northward Shift in Landfall Locations of Tropical Cyclones over the Western North Pacific during the Last Four Decades. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 39, 304-319. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-021-1077-z |
| [20] | Lin, H. and Wang, B. (2002) The Time-Space Structure of the Asian-Pacific Summer Monsoon: A Fast Annual Cycle View. Journal of Climate, 15, 2001-2019. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<2001:ttssot>2.0.co;2 |
| [21] | Liu, L., Wang, Y., Zhan, R., Xu, J. and Duan, Y. (2020) Increasing Destructive Potential of Landfalling Tropical Cyclones over China. Journal of Climate, 33, 3731-3743. https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-19-0451.1 |
| [22] | Mei, W. and Xie, S. (2016) Intensification of Landfalling Typhoons over the Northwest Pacific since the Late 1970s. Nature Geoscience, 9, 753-757. https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2792 |
| [23] | Zhao, J., Zhan, R. and Wang, Y. (2018) Global Warming Hiatus Contributed to the Increased Occurrence of Intense Tropical Cyclones in the Coastal Regions along East Asia. Scientific Reports, 8, Article No. 6023. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-24402-2 |
| [24] | Liu, L. and Wang, Y. (2020) Trends in Landfalling Tropical Cyclone-Induced Precipitation over China. Journal of Climate, 33, 2223-2235. https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-19-0693.1 |
