2024年5月26~27日武汉一次强降水过程成因分析
Causal Analysis of a Heavy Precipitation on May 26~27, 2024 in Wuhan

利用MICAPS常规观测、湖北区域气象自动站资料、欧洲中期天气预报中心模式(ECMWF)及ERA5 (第五代欧洲再分析)资料、中国气象局中尺度天气数值预报系统(CMA-MESO)等资料，针对2024年5月26~27日武汉市一次强降水过程的成因进行了分析。本次强降水过程是在高低层系统的相互作用下产生的局地短时强降水过程。武汉上空的对流层中高层环流呈辐散特征，低层配合有气旋性辐合，冷暖气流交汇，对流层中低层集聚大量不稳定能量，850 hPa的假相当位温高值区，武汉南部△θ_se500~850达到？10℃，大气可降水量在52~60 mm之间，为本次强降水提供了较好的动力条件、能量条件、水汽条件以及对流不稳定层结。
Utilizing MICAPS routine observation data, automatic meteorological station data from Hubei region, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model data, ERA5 (fifth-generation European reanalysis) data, and the China Meteorological Administration’s Mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction System (CMA-MESO) data, this study analyzed the causes of a heavy precipitation event that occurred in Wuhan on May 26~27, 2024. This heavy precipitation event was a local short-time intense precipitation process resulting from the interaction between upper and lower atmospheric systems. The mid-to-upper tropospheric circulation above Wuhan exhibited divergent characteristics, while the lower layers were accompanied by cyclonic convergence, with the convergence of cold and warm air currents. A substantial amount of unstable energy accumulated in the mid-to-lower troposphere. The high-value area of pseudo-equivalent potential temperature was observed at the 850 hPa level, with Δθ_se500~850 reaching ？10？C in the southern part of Wuhan. The atmospheric precipitable water content ranged between 52~60 mm, providing favorable dynamic, energetic, and moisture conditions, as well as convective instability, for this heavy precipitation event.