黄河流域城市群韧性水平评价及提升建议研究
Research on the Evaluation of Resilience Levels and Recommendations for Improvement in the Urban Agglomeration of the Yellow River Basin

黄河流域作为北方发展的重要增长带，其城市韧性提升对于建设黄河生态文明与高质量发展起到保障作用。本文以黄河流域城市群为研究对象，选取2005~2020年城市面板数据，建立经济、社会、基础设施和生态四大维度黄河流域城市韧性评价指标体系，分析城市韧性水平的时空演化特征，最后从黄河流域、七个城市群、城市群内部三个角度提出城市韧性提升对策建议。研究主要结论如下：(1) 在研究期间七大城市群及流域整体韧性水平呈现稳步增长趋势，但不同城市群的增长速度也不同，并随着时间变化韧性差异逐渐缩小；(2) 城市韧性水平空间特征是研究期前期“西部低，东部高”、城市群内“核心–边缘”的分布格局较明显，后期城市群之间和内部差异明显缩小；(3) 从韧性差异性及其影响因素来看，差异来源于城市群内部的差异，其中生态和社会韧性的影响度较大；(4) 研究表明流域整体进一步深化西部大开发的同时，晋中城市群、吕梁和商洛等城市应大力加强韧性提升工作，关中平原群需要注重内部协调发展。
The Yellow River Basin, as an important growth zone for northern development, plays a crucial role in enhancing urban resilience, which is essential for building ecological civilization and achieving high-quality development in the region. This study focuses on urban agglomerations in the Yellow River Basin, utilizing panel data from 2005 to 2020. It establishes a comprehensive evaluation index system for urban resilience across four dimensions: economy, society, infrastructure, and ecology. The analysis explores the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of urban resilience levels. Finally, the paper offers recommendations for improving urban resilience from three perspectives: the Yellow River Basin as a whole, seven urban agglomerations, and the internal dynamics of these urban clusters. The main conclusions of the research are as follows: (1) During the study period, the overall resilience levels of the seven major city clusters and river basins showed a steady upward trend, although the growth rates varied across different city clusters, with resilience disparities gradually narrowing over time; (2) The spatial characteristics of urban resilience levels were notably marked by a pattern of “lower in the west and higher in the east” in the early stages of the study, as well as a “core-periphery” distribution within city clusters, although the differences between and within city clusters became less pronounced in later stages; (3) In terms of resilience disparity and its influencing factors, the variations largely stem from differences within the city clusters, particularly with significant impacts from ecological and social resilience; (4) The research indicates that while further deepening the western development strategy, cities such as Jinzhong, Lüliang, and Shangluo should vigorously strengthen their resilience enhancement efforts, and the Guanzhong Plain area needs to focus on internal coordinated development.