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少子化对居民家庭消费及消费升级的影响
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Abstract:
文章采用2010~2018年中国家庭动态追踪调查(CFPS)的家庭面板数据，结合生命周期理论和家庭储蓄需求模型，基于双固定效应模型考察了少子化对居民家庭消费及消费升级的影响。研究发现，少子化有利于提升居民家庭消费水平，并且有助于居民家庭消费结构升级。分城乡的异质性检验表明，少子化对农村家庭的消费水平存在更为显著的正效应。而农村家庭分地区的异质性检验显示，少子化对农村家庭消费的影响在经济发展水平不同的地区之间存在显著差异，少子化对欠发达西部地区的农村家庭消费的促进作用更加强烈，显著促进了西部地区农村家庭的消费水平提高。
Using the household panel data from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) from 2010 to 2018 and combining the life cycle theory and household savings demand model, this paper examines the impact of low fertility on household consumption and consumption upgrading based on a double fixed-effect model. The study finds that low fertility is conducive to improving household consumption levels and helping households upgrade their consumption structure. The heterogeneity test by region and urban-rural areas shows that low fertility has a more significant positive effect on rural household consumption levels. The heterogeneity test by region shows that the impact of low fertility on rural household consumption varies significantly between different regions, with a stronger promotion effect on rural household consumption in the less developed western regions, significantly improving the consumption level of rural households in these regions.
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