全球价值链参与度对贸易隐含碳的影响研究——以APEC国家制造业为例
The Impact Study of Global Value Chain Participation on Trade-Embedded Carbon Emissions—Taking the Manufacturing Sector in APEC Countries as an Example

本文通过投入产出法计算APEC组织国家制造业贸易隐含碳和全球价值链前向和后向参与度数据，并通过中介效应检验，分析全球价值链参与度对贸易隐含碳的间接影响，得出以下结论：(1) APEC国家的前向参与度普遍呈现上升趋势，反映了各国对全球生产网络的依赖性增强。后向参与度方面，东南亚国家如越南和马来西亚表现出显著的上升趋势，说明这些国家在全球生产链中扮演了重要的中间品加工角色。APEC国家在全球价值链中的表现呈现出较大差异；(2) APEC组织内国家贸易隐含碳呈现不同的发展趋势，且差异较大；(3) 全球价值链参与度与产业规模、结构和技术的交互效应显示出复杂的模式，其中前向参与度在特定条件下的规模、结构和技术效应具有积极影响，而后向参与度在某些情况下可能产生负面影响。这些发现突显出全球价值链参与度对经济增长和环境的影响，需要综合考虑各种因素以实现可持续发展。
This study calculates trade-embedded carbon emissions and forward and backward global value chain (GVC) participation data in the manufacturing sector of APEC countries using the input-output approach. Through mediation effect testing, it analyzes the indirect impact of GVC participation on trade-embedded carbon. The findings are as follows: (1) The forward GVC participation in APEC countries shows a general upward trend, reflecting increased reliance on the global production network. For backward participation, Southeast Asian countries such as Vietnam and Malaysia exhibit a significant upward trend, indicating their roles as key intermediate goods processors within the global production chain. Overall, there are substantial differences in GVC participation across APEC countries; (2) Trade-embedded carbon emissions among APEC countries exhibit diverse trends, with significant cross-country differences; (3) The interaction effects of GVC participation with industry scale, structure, and technology reveal complex patterns. Under certain conditions, forward participation has a positive impact through scale, structure, and technological effects, while backward participation may exert a negative influence in some cases. These findings highlight the complex effects of GVC participation on economic growth and environmental impact, underscoring the need for a balanced approach to achieve sustainable development.