高校扩招对代际收入流动影响的实证研究
An Empirical Study on the Impact of College Enrollment Expansion on Intergenerational Income Mobility

本研究基于中国家庭追踪调查数据库，利用截面双重差分法，从微观视角探究1999年高校扩招政策对代际收入流动的影响。研究发现，高校扩招政策能够促进代际收入流动，该结论经过平行趋势检验、安慰剂检验以及稳健性检验后依然成立。机制检验的结果表明，高校扩招政策能通过人力资本和社会资本两条路径，提升子代收入水平，进而促进代际收入流动的改善。此外，高校扩招对于男性和农村户籍个体的代际收入流动改善情况更为显著。在高校扩招政策持续推进的大背景下，应加大对农村地区教育资源的投入与制定，实施更具针对性的教育政策并强化职业发展支持，缩小区域间教育资源差异，最小化高校扩招潜在的负面影响。
This study is based on the China Family Panel Survey database and uses the cross-sectional difference-in-difference method to explore the impact of the 1999 college enrollment expansion policy on intergenerational income mobility from a micro perspective. The study found that college enrollment expansion can promote intergenerational income mobility. This conclusion still holds true after parallel trend testing, placebo testing and robustness test. The results of the mechanism test show that the college enrollment expansion policy can improve the income level of children through two paths: human capital and social capital, thereby promoting the improvement of intergenerational income flow. In addition, the expansion of college enrollment has more significant improvements in intergenerational income mobility for men and individuals with rural household registration. In the context of the continued advancement of the college enrollment expansion policy, investment in educational resources in rural areas should be increased, more targeted educational policies should be formulated and implemented, and career development support should be strengthened to narrow regional differences in educational resources and minimize the potential negative impacts of college enrollment expansion.