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文山机场雷雨预报检验及天气分型
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Abstract:
本文利用文山机场2022~2024年间122天雷雨天气过程资料，包括11次强雷雨复盘总结，运用复盘案例分析天气形势，结合2023~2024年MICAPS系统资料分析比对，对文山机场雷雨预报进行了分型检验，总结了文山机场气象台各类型雷雨的漏报率及占比、检验了MICAPS系统雷雨预报三个指标的可靠性。最后就漏报率最高的地形雷暴，利用实况资料总结分析归纳了文山机场地形对不同移动路径雷暴的作用，为未来降低漏报率及提高预报准确率提供数据支持和理论依据。
This paper utilized the data of 122 thunderstorm weather processes at Wenshan Airport from 2022 to 2024, including the review summaries of 11 severe thunderstorms. By analyzing weather situations through case reviews and comparing with the data from the MICAPS system in 2023~2024, the thunderstorm forecasts at Wenshan Airport were subjected to classification tests. The missed report rates and proportions of various types of thunderstorms at the Wenshan Airport Meteorological Observatory were summarized, and the reliability of the three major indicators for thunderstorm forecasts in the MICAPS system was examined. Finally, for the topographic thunderstorms with the highest missed report rate, the role of the terrain of Wenshan Airport in thunderstorms with different moving paths was summarized, analyzed and concluded using the actual data, so as to provide data support and theoretical basis for reducing the missed report rate and improving the forecast accuracy in the future.
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