基于多因素分析的东莞市城市轨道交通线路建设时序方案研究
Study on the Construction Sequencing Plan of Urban Rail Transit in Dongguan Based on Multi-Factor Analysis

城市轨道交通建设是一项长期、庞大的系统工程，同时也是巨大的投资工程，在有限的财政资源下，优先安排最优的轨道交通线路，能够有效支撑城市的发展。本文探索在建设规模受限下，轨道建设时序的最优解。从城市经济承受能力、交通需求、施工进度等三方面分析未来10~15年东莞可承担的轨道交通建设规模；通过采用AHP层次分析法和熵权法确定轨道交通建设时序的影响指标权重，通过构建时序影响指标的决策矩阵，分析确定多条轨道线路的建设时序优先度，提出轨道交通第三期建设规划、第四期建设规划的线路，为政府部门决策东莞市轨道交通时序提供参考依据。
The urban rail transit not only is a long-term and great system engineering, but also is the great investment project. Prioritizing the optimal rail transit routes within limited financial resources can effectively support the development of the city. This article explores the optimal solution for the timing of rail construction under limited construction scale, and analyzes the scale of rail transit construction that Dongguan can undertake in the next 10~15 years from three aspects: urban economic capacity, transportation demand, and construction progress. By using the AHP and entropy weight method to determine the weight of the influencing indicators for the construction sequence of urban rail transit, and by constructing the decision matrix for the influencing indicators of the construction sequence, the priority degree of the construction sequence of multiple rail lines is analyzed and determined. Proposals are made for the third phase and fourth phase of the urban rail transit construction plan in Dongguan, providing reference basis for the government’s decision-making on the construction sequence of urban rail transit in Dongguan.