环亚太区域货币网络及人民币影响力演变分析
Analysis of Currency Network and Influence Evolution of RMB in Asia-Pacific Region

本文利用弹性网改进的TVP-VAR模型结合DY溢出指数，选取环亚太区域内24个主要经济体1995年2月至2021年3月的货币汇率数据，从系统的角度出发，引入货币权力概念，测度了区域各国货币权力溢出的演变情况，从货币的视角系统性地分析中美两国的政治经济角力演变情况。研究发现：(1) 环亚太区域内各国的区域性联系较强，而且域内核心国家有从东盟各国转变为域内发达国家的趋势。(2) 美元拥有良好的避险能力和风险溢出能力，能够向其他国家稳定输出影响力，并且常处于环亚太区域中的核心地位。(3) 在大部分时期人民币在区域货币汇率溢出网络中一直处于风险吸收的地位。虽然人民币国际化战略确实提升了人民币在环亚太区域的地位，但是其权力溢出水平相比于美元仍有一定的差距，且尚未能使人民币处于区域中的核心地位，与域内各国也尚未形成较强的联系。
This paper uses the TVP-VAR model improved by elastic network and DY spillover index to select the currency exchange rate data of 24 major economies in the Asia-Pacific region from February 1995 to March 2021. From the perspective of system, the concept of monetary power is introduced to measure the evolution of monetary power spillover of countries in the region. This paper systematically analyzes the evolution of the political and economic struggle between China and the United States from the perspective of currency. The research findings are as follows: (1) The regional connections of the countries in the Asia-Pacific region are strong, and the core countries in the region have a tendency to change from ASEAN countries to developed countries in the region. The US dollar has good hedging ability and risk spillover ability, can steadily export its influence to other countries, and is often in the core position in the Asia-Pacific region. (3) In most periods, RMB has been in the position of risk absorption in the regional currency exchange rate spillover network. Although the internationalization strategy of RMB has indeed enhanced the status of RMB in the Asia-Pacific region, its power spillover level is still a certain gap compared with the US dollar, and it has not yet been able to put RMB in the core position in the region, nor has it formed a strong connection with countries in the region.