This article examines the current US rhetoric regarding the Panama Canal through the lenses of Structural Realism and Classical Realism, analyzing the resurgence of great power competition between the United States and China. Employing a comparative analysis with the Cuban Missile Crisis, the study investigates how the Canal reflects the dynamics of power and security in the international system. The objectives are to demonstrate the applicability of Structural Realism in understanding contemporary geopolitical challenges, analyze the Panama Canal as a microcosm of US-China competition, and warn of potential escalation while acknowledging mitigating factors. The analysis concludes that while a significant crisis is unlikely, the Panama Canal exemplifies the ongoing struggle for power and influence in the 21st century, underscoring the need for careful diplomacy and effective crisis management.
References
[1]
Daddow, O. (2017) International Relations Theory. 3rd Edition, SAGE Publica-tions, Inc.
[2]
Burchill, S., Linklater, A., Devetak, R., Donnelly, J., Paterson, M., Reus-Smit, C. and True, J. (2005) Theories of International Relations. 3rd Edi-tion, Palgrave Macmillan.
[3]
Dunne, T., Kurki, M. and Smith, S. (2021) In-ternational Relations Theories: Discipline and Diversity. 3rd Edition, Oxford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1093/hepl/9780198814443.001.0001
[4]
Baldwin, A. (1993) Neorealism & Neoliberalismi. Columbia University Press.
[5]
Griffiths, M. (2007) International Relations Theory for the Twenty-First Century: An In-troduction. Routledge. https://doi.org/10.4324/9780203939031
[6]
Mastanduno, M. (1989) To-ward a Realist Theory of State Action. International Studies Quarterly, 33, 457-474. https://doi.org/10.2307/2600522
[7]
Ambrose, S.E. (2011) Rise to Globalism: American Foreign Policy Since 1938. Penguin Books.
[8]
Neuman, S. (2025) Is Trump’s Rhetoric on Greenland, Canada and Panama Canal a “Madman Strategy”? NPR.
https://www.npr.org/2025/01/11/nx-s1-5253910/donald-trump-greenland-panama-canal-canada
[9]
Zeitz, J. (2025) There’s More to Trump’s Bluster Over the Panama Canal than You Think. Politico. https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2025/01/11/trumps-bluster-panama-canal-00197624
[10]
Curley, G. (2025) The US Is Right to Be Concerned about China’s Influence over the Panama Canal. Atlantic Council.
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/right-to-
be-concerned-about-chinas-influence-over-the-panama-canal/
[11]
Taylor, L. (2025) ‘Why Pick a Battle Over This?’: Trump’s Threats over Panama Canal Reopen Wounds over 1989 US Invasion. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jan/12/panama-canal-trump
[12]
Barria, X. (2025) China Increases Its Presence around the Panama Canal. Global Affairs and Strategic Studies.
https://en.unav.edu/web/global-affairs/detalle/-/blogs/china-
aumenta-su-presencia-en-el-entorno-del-canal-de-panama
[13]
Rosenberg, P. (2022) Panama Canal: Thermometer of the US-China feud, Covid-19 and the Post-Pandemic Recovery. Global Affairs. University of Navarra. Universidad de Navarra.
https://en.unav.edu/web/global-affairs/canal-de-panama-termometro
-de-la-pugna-eeuu-china-del-covid-19-y-de-la-recuperacion-post-pandemia
[14]
Think China (2025) Trump, the Panama Canal and US-China Rivalry. Think China. https://www.thinkchina.sg/politics/trump-panama-canal-and-us-china-rivalry
[15]
Marczak, J., Busch, S., Blakemore, R., Bozmoski, M. and Hart, M. (2025) What’s Going on with Trump and the Panama Canal? Atlantic Council.
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/expert-
context-whats-going-on-with-trump-and-the-panama-canal/