Predicting the Yield Loss of Winter Wheat Due to Drought in the Llano Estacado Region of the United States Based on the Cultivar-Specific Sensitivity to Drought
In most agricultural areas in the semi-arid region of the southern United States, wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) production is a primary economic activity. This region is drought-prone and projected to have a drier climate in the future. Predicting the yield loss due to an anticipated drought is crucial for wheat growers. A reliable way for predicting the drought-induced yield loss is to use a plant physiology-based drought index, such as Agricultural Reference Index for Drought (ARID). Since different wheat cultivars exhibit varying levels of sensitivity to water stress, the impact of drought could be different on the cultivars belonging to different drought sensitivity groups. The objective of this study was to develop the cultivar drought sensitivity (CDS) group-specific, ARID-based models for predicting the drought-induced yield loss of winter wheat in the Llano Estacado region in the southern United States by accounting for the phenological phase-specific sensitivity to drought. For the study, the historical (1947-2021) winter wheat grain yield and daily weather data of two locations in the region (Bushland, TX and Clovis, NM) were used. The logical values of the drought sensitivity parameters of the yield models, especially for the moderately-sensitive and highly-sensitive CDS groups, indicated that the yield models reflected the phenomenon of water stress decreasing the winter wheat yields in this region satisfactorily. The reasonable values of the Nash-Sutcliffe Index (0.65 and 0.72), the Willmott Index (0.88 and 0.92), and the percentage error (23 and 22) for the moderately-sensitive and highly-sensitive CDS groups, respectively, indicated that the yield models for these groups performed reasonably well. These models could be useful for predicting the drought-induced yield losses and scheduling irrigation allocation based on the phenological phase-specific drought sensitivity as influenced by cultivar genotype.
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