辽宁省森林碳汇及其经济价值的变化分析与潜力预测
Analysis and Potential Prediction of Forest Carbon Sequestration and Its Economic Value in Liaoning Province

森林生态系统在全球范围内扮演着关键角色，作为主要的碳库，其生物体和土壤中积聚了庞大的碳量。本研究利用1998年至2018年间辽宁省的森林资源清查数据，结合生物量转换因子连续函数法与市场价值法，全面分析了辽宁省森林的碳储量、碳汇能力以及它们所带来的经济价值。并利用GM (1, 1)灰色预测模型预测辽宁省森林碳汇发展潜力，进而得到碳达峰目标年的预估值。结果表明：本文基于1998~2018年辽宁省森林数据，分析了森林碳储量、碳汇现状及其经济价值，并预测了碳达峰年2023年的预估值。研究结果表明，幼龄林和中龄林的碳储量占据了最大的比例，而成熟林的碳汇量在2009年至2013年间达到了最高点1.91 Tg C/a。各优势种碳储量整体增加，但碳汇量变化无明显规律。天然林碳汇量下降，人工林上升。灌木林的碳储存量有所增长，而经济林的碳储存量则出现了减少。预计2023年乔木林面积5.04 × 106 hm²，碳储量267.06 Tg C，碳汇量8.35 Tg C/a，碳汇经济价值8.67 × 107元/a。
The forest ecosystem plays a key role on a global scale, acting as major carbon reservoirs, with huge amounts of carbon accumulating in its biomass and soils. This article analyzes the forest carbon storage and carbon sequestration status and economic value of Liaoning Province from 1998 to 2018, based on forest inventory data, using the biomass conversion factor continuous function method and market value method. It also predicts the development potential of forest carbon sequestration in Liaoning Province using the GM (1, 1) grey prediction model, leading to an estimated value for the carbon peak year. The results show that the carbon storage of young and middle-aged forests accounts for the largest proportion, with mature forests reaching a peak carbon sequestration of 1.91 Tg C/a during 2009~2013. The carbon storage of various dominant species has generally increased, but the carbon sequestration has no clear pattern. The carbon sequestration of natural forests is declining, while that of plantation forests is increasing. The carbon storage of shrub forests has increased annually, while that of economic forests has decreased. It is estimated that by the carbon peak year of 2023, the area of arbor forests in Liaoning Province will reach 5.04 × 106 hm², with a carbon storage of 267.06 Tg C, a carbon sequestration of 8.35 Tg C/a, and an economic value of 8.67 × 107 yuan/a.