“二元悖论”视角下的货币政策独立性研究
Research on the Monetary Policy Independence from the Perspective of “Dilemma”

“二元悖论”是“三元悖论”的前沿理论成果，具体指经济体内外均衡问题中货币政策独立性与资本自由流动两个目标只能选择其一的矛盾，弥补了“三元悖论”难以解释浮动汇率制经济体风险隔离削弱现象的不足。本文基于“二元悖论”视角，分析我国货币政策独立性的影响因素和重塑路径。本文从理论层面分析货币政策独立性与资本自由流动的二元系统，揭示人民币国际化提升货币政策独立性的底层逻辑，从实证层面以双重机器学习模型识别人民币国际化、金融深化、外汇储备与二元系统和货币政策独立性的关系。本文最后根据研究结论提出相关建议，一是深层次推进人民币国际化，二是高水平推进金融深化，三是优化外汇储备结构。
The “Dilemma” is the cutting-edge theoretical achievement of the “Trilemma”, which specifically refers to the contradiction that only one of the two goals of monetary policy independence and capital flow can be chosen in the problem of internal and external equilibrium of the economy, which makes up for the lack of the “Trilemma” that is difficult to explain the weakening of risk isolation in economies with floating exchange rate system. Based on the perspective of “Dilemma”, this paper analyzes the influencing factors and reshaping paths of China’s monetary policy independence. This paper analyzes the dual system of monetary policy independence and capital flow from the theoretical level, reveals the underlying logic of RMB internationalization to enhance monetary policy independence, and uses a double machine learning model to identify the relationship between RMB internationalization, financial deepening, foreign exchange reserves, and the dual system and monetary policy independence from the empirical level. Finally, this paper puts forward some suggestions based on the research conclusions, one is to promote the internationalization of RMB at a deeper level, the second is to promote financial deepening at a high level, and the third is to optimize the structure of foreign exchange reserves.