广东省农业产业结构的动态灰色关联分析
Dynamic Grey Relational Analysis of Agricultural Industry Structure in Guangdong Province

本研究基于2015~2022年广东省农业内部产业及其主要子产业的数据，运用动态灰色关联分析方法，探讨各产业对农业总产值的贡献及其变化趋势。结果表明，种植业中蔬菜、茶叶、水果等经济作物关联度较高且持续上升，而稻谷等传统粮食作物在粮食安全政策推动下，贡献度逐步回升。林业中，木材的关联度呈下降趋势，而油茶籽等经济林产品表现出较强的增长潜力。牧业以肉类和禽蛋为主导，需求持续增加，渔业则聚焦于虾蟹和鱼类等高值产品，同时藻类产品市场潜力逐渐显现。整体来看，农业服务业对总产值的贡献有限。基于分析结果，提出优化种植业结构、促进林业多元化发展、提升牧业及渔业产品高值化等政策建议，以推动广东省农业的高质量发展。研究结果为广东省农业产业结构调整及政策制定提供了科学依据。
This study uses dynamic grey relational analysis based on data from Guangdong Province’s agricultural sectors and their major sub-industries from 2015 to 2022. The analysis explores the contribution of each sector to the overall agricultural output and its changing trends. Results indicate that economic crops in the planting sector, such as vegetables, tea, and fruits, have shown a high and continuously increasing degree of correlation. In contrast, traditional grain crops like rice have gradually improved their contribution under the impetus of food security policies. In the forestry sector, the correlation of timber shows a declining trend, while economic forest products like camellia seeds exhibit significant growth potential. The livestock industry is dominated by meat and eggs, with growing demand, while the fishery sector focuses on high-value products such as shrimp, crabs, and fish, with seaweed products also revealing emerging market potential. Overall, agricultural services contribute only marginally to the total output. Based on the findings, the study proposes policy recommendations, including optimizing the structure of the planting sector, promoting diversification in forestry, and enhancing the value of livestock and fishery products, to drive high-quality agricultural development in Guangdong Province. The results provide scientific evidence for adjusting the agricultural industry structure and policy formulation in Guangdong.