高端高价卷烟支付意愿研究与潜在消费者挖掘——以Y市为例
Research on Willingness to Pay for High-End and High Priced Cigarettes and Mining of Potential Consumers—Taking Y City as an Example

目的：深入挖掘卷烟消费数据，探究高端高价卷烟支付意愿和影响因素，进而分析和预测潜在消费者，为营销策略的优化指明方向。方法：本文以Y市为例，利用消费金额和频率测算高端高价烟消费者支付意愿，进而采用多元有序Logistic模型分析影响因素并探究不同支付意愿的异质性原因，在此基础上利用潜类别模型从全部消费者中挖掘潜在消费者。结论：本文提出的模型和算法能有效分析高端高价卷烟支付意愿和影响因素，并能识别潜在消费人群。
Objective: To explore the willingness to pay for high-end and high-priced cigarettes and its influencing factors by mining cigarette consumption data, and then analyze and predict potential consumers, so as to point out the direction for the optimization of marketing strategies. Methods: Taking Y City as an example, this paper uses the consumption amount and frequency to measure the willingness to pay of high-end and high-priced cigarette consumers, and then uses the multivariate ordered logistic model to analyze the influencing factors and explore the reasons for the heterogeneity of different willingness to pay. On this basis, it uses the potential category model to mine potential consumers from all consumers. Conclusion: The model and algorithm proposed in this paper can effectively analyze the willingness to pay and influencing factors of high-end and high-priced cigarettes, and can identify potential consumers.