渐进决策模型视角下德国长期护理保险政策研究
A Study on the German Long-Term Care Insurance Policy from the Perspective of Gradual Decision Model

全球人口老龄化问题日益严峻，德国作为较早实施长期护理保险政策的国家，其渐进的政策演变为其他国家提供了宝贵的经验。本文基于渐进主义模型，从时间轴出发，探讨德国长期护理保险政策在政治、经济、社会等因素推动下的逐步演变过程。通过梳理政策的制定、改革和完善的历程，本文深入分析了渐进式政策变迁的逻辑，尤其是如何通过政策渐进调整应对人口老龄化、护理需求增加等挑战。同时，本文结合巴伐利亚州，探讨了政策的实施效果和成效。最后，本文借鉴德国经验，对中国长期护理保险制度的发展提出建议，包括多元筹资机制、分级护理服务模式、服务质量监管体系等，以期为中国的老龄化问题提供切实可行的政策参考。
The issue of global aging population is becoming increasingly serious, and Germany, as one of the countries that implemented a long-term care insurance policy earlier, has provided valuable experience for other countries through its gradual policy evolution. Based on the gradualism model, this paper explores the gradual evolution process of Germany’s long-term care insurance policy from the perspective of time axis, discussing how political, economic, and social factors have driven the policy’s gradual evolution. By sorting out the process of policy formulation, reform, and improvement, this paper deeply analyzes the logic of gradual policy change, especially how to address challenges such as aging population and increasing care needs through gradual policy adjustments. At the same time, this paper discusses the implementation effects and achievements of the policy in Bavaria. Finally, this paper draws on the German experience to offer suggestions for the development of China’s long-term care insurance system, including a diversified funding mechanism, a tiered care service model, and a quality supervision system for services, in order to provide practical policy references for China’s aging problem.