Energy sustains the world, yet fossil fuels, a finite resource, are dwindling. This necessitates a shift towards more sustainable energy sources, such as electricity. Accurate load forecasting is crucial in today’s global energy landscape, as it helps predict various aspects such as production, revenue, consumption, economic conditions, weather impacts, power system utilization, customer demand, and economic growth. For instance, an increase in electricity demand within a country often signifies a boost in industry and production, leading to economic progress and reduced unemployment. This project aims to enhance prediction accuracy through meticulous input filtering, taking into account factors like population growth, planned loads, inflation, and competitive pricing pressures from producers. Despite inherent prediction errors, efforts are made to minimize these discrepancies. This paper introduces a novel combined method for mid-term energy forecasting. To demonstrate its efficacy, real data from the past ten months, collected from subscribers of the Kerman distribution company, was used to forecast energy consumption over the next ten days. The innovative method, which integrates multiple forecasting techniques and robust filters, significantly improves forecasting precision. The following error metrics were recorded for the proposed method: MSE: 0.009, MAE: 0.083, MAPE: 0.776, RMSE: 0.095, AE: 0.013.
References
[1]
Hassanpouri Baesmat, K. and Shiri, A. (2018) A New Combined Method for Future Energy Forecasting in Electrical Networks. InternationalTransactionsonElectricalEnergySystems, 29, e2749. https://doi.org/10.1002/etep.2749
[2]
Baesmat, K.H. and Latifi, S. (2023) A New Hybrid Method for Electrical Load Forecasting Based on Deviation Correction and MRMRMS. In: Selvaraj, H., Chmaj, G. and Zydek, D., Eds., Advances in Systems Engineering, Springer, 293-303. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-40579-2_29
[3]
Baesmat, K.H. (2024) Impedance Analysis of Adaptive Distance Relays Using Machine Learning. In: Latifi, S., Ed., ITNG 2024: 21st International Conference on Information Technology-New Generations, Springer, 457-461. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-56599-1_57
[4]
Jamali, H., Karimi, A. and Haghighizadeh, M. (2018) A New Method of Cloud-Based Computation Model for Mobile Devices: Energy Consumption Optimization in Mobile-to-Mobile Computation Offloading. Proceedings of the 6th International Conference on Communications and Broadband Networking, Singapore, 24-26 February 2018, 32-37. https://doi.org/10.1145/3193092.3193103
[5]
Li, S., Goel, L. and Wang, P. (2016) An Ensemble Approach for Short-Term Load Forecasting by Extreme Learning Machine. AppliedEnergy, 170, 22-29. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2016.02.114
[6]
Islam, M.S., Minul Alam, M., Ahamed, A. and Ali Meerza, S.I. (2023) Prediction of Diabetes at Early Stage Using Interpretable Machine Learning. SoutheastCon 2023, Orlando, 1-16 April 2023, 261-265. https://doi.org/10.1109/southeastcon51012.2023.10115152
[7]
Abiodun, O.I., Jantan, A., Omolara, A.E., Dada, K.V., Mohamed, N.A. and Arshad, H. (2018) State-of-the-Art in Artificial Neural Network Applications: A Survey. Heliyon, 4, e00938. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2018.e00938
[8]
Abiodun, O.I., Kiru, M.U., Jantan, A., Omolara, A.E., Dada, K.V., Umar, A.M., et al. (2019) Comprehensive Review of Artificial Neural Network Applications to Pattern Recognition. IEEEAccess, 7, 158820-158846. https://doi.org/10.1109/access.2019.2945545
[9]
Espinoza, M., Suykens, J.A.K., Belmans, R. and De Moor, B. (2007) Electric Load Forecasting Using Kernel-Based Modeling for Nonlinear System Identification. IEEE Control Systems Magazine, 27, 43-57. https://doi.org/10.1109/MCS.2007.904656
[10]
Mastorocostas, P.A., Theocharis, J.B. and Bakirtzis, A.G. (1999) Fuzzy Modeling for Short Term Load Forecasting Using the Orthogonal Least Squares Method. IEEETransactionsonPowerSystems, 14, 29-36. https://doi.org/10.1109/59.744480
[11]
Hippert, H.S., Pedreira, C.E. and Souza, R.C. (2001) Neural Networks for Short-Term Load Forecasting: A Review and Evaluation. IEEETransactionsonPowerSystems, 16, 44-55. https://doi.org/10.1109/59.910780
[12]
Shyh-Jier Huang, and Kuang-Rong Shih, (2003) Short-term Load Forecasting via ARMA Model Identification Including Non-Gaussian Process Considerations. IEEETransactionsonPowerSystems, 18, 673-679. https://doi.org/10.1109/tpwrs.2003.811010
[13]
RochaReis, A.J. and AlvesdaSilva, A.P. (2005) Feature Extraction via Multiresolution Analysis for Short-Term Load Forecasting. IEEETransactionsonPowerSystems, 20, 189-198. https://doi.org/10.1109/tpwrs.2004.840380
[14]
Fan, S. and Chen, L. (2006) Short-term Load Forecasting Based on an Adaptive Hybrid Method. IEEETransactionsonPowerSystems, 21, 392-401. https://doi.org/10.1109/tpwrs.2005.860944
[15]
Khotanzad, A., Enwang Zhou, and Elragal, H. (2002) A Neuro-Fuzzy Approach to Short-Term Load Forecasting in a Price-Sensitive Environment. IEEETransactionsonPowerSystems, 17, 1273-1282. https://doi.org/10.1109/tpwrs.2002.804999
[16]
Widjaja, M. and Mielczarski, W. (1999) A Fuzzy-Based Approach to Analyse System Demand in the Australian Electricity Market. 1999 IEEE Power Engineering Society Summer Meeting. Conference Proceedings (Cat. No.99CH36364), Edmonton, 18-22 July 1999, 918-923. https://doi.org/10.1109/pess.1999.787439
[17]
Iyer, V., Chun Che Fung, and Gedeon, T. (2003) A Fuzzy-Neural Approach to Electricity Load and Spot Price Forecasting in a Deregulated Electricity Market. TENCON 2003. Conference on Convergent Technologies for Asia-Pacific Region, Bangalore, 15-17 October 2003, 1479-1482. https://doi.org/10.1109/tencon.2003.1273164
[18]
Hagan, M.T. and Behr, S.M. (1987) The Time Series Approach to Short Term Load Forecasting. IEEETransactionsonPowerSystems, 2, 785-791. https://doi.org/10.1109/tpwrs.1987.4335210
[19]
Michanos, S.P., Tsakoumis, A.C., Fessas, P., Vladov, S.S. and Mladenov, V.M. (n.d.). Short-term Load Forecasting Using a Chaotic Time Series. SCS 2003. InternationalSymposiumonSignals, CircuitsandSystems. Proceedings (Cat. No.03EX720), Iasi, 10-11 July 2003, 437-440. https://doi.org/10.1109/scs.2003.1227083
[20]
Lu, Q., Grady, W.M., Crawford, M.M. and Anderson, G.M. (1989) An Adaptive Nonlinear Predictor with Orthogonal Escalator Structure for Short-Term Load Forecasting. IEEETransactionsonPowerSystems, 4, 158-164. https://doi.org/10.1109/59.32473
[21]
Papalexopoulos, A.D. and Hesterberg, T.C. (1990) A Regression-Based Approach to Short-Term System Load Forecasting. IEEETransactionsonPowerSystems, 5, 1535-1547. https://doi.org/10.1109/59.99410
[22]
Dashti, R., Afsharnia, S. and Ghasemi, H. (2010) A New Long Term Load Management Model for Asset Governance of Electrical Distribution Systems. AppliedEnergy, 87, 3661-3667. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2010.04.003
[23]
Amjady, N. and Daraeepour, A. (2011) Midterm Demand Prediction of Electrical Power Systems Using a New Hybrid Forecast Technique. IEEETransactionsonPowerSystems, 26, 755-765. https://doi.org/10.1109/tpwrs.2010.2055902
[24]
Xia, C., Wang, J. and McMenemy, K. (2010) Short, Medium and Long Term Load Forecasting Model and Virtual Load Forecaster Based on Radial Basis Function Neural Networks. InternationalJournalofElectricalPower&EnergySystems, 32, 743-750. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijepes.2010.01.009
[25]
Menezes, A.C., Cripps, A., Buswell, R.A., Wright, J. and Bouchlaghem, D. (2014) Estimating the Energy Consumption and Power Demand of Small Power Equipment in Office Buildings. EnergyandBuildings, 75, 199-209. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enbuild.2014.02.011
[26]
Kim, K.H., Youn, H.S. and Kang, Y.C. (2000) Short-Term Load Forecasting for Special Days in Anomalous Load Conditions Using Neural Networks and Fuzzy Inference Method. IEEETransactionsonPowerSystems, 15, 559-565. https://doi.org/10.1109/59.867141
[27]
Kwak, N. and Choi, C.H. (2002) Input Feature Selection for Classification Problems. IEEETransactionsonNeuralNetworks, 13, 143-159. https://doi.org/10.1109/72.977291
[28]
Amjady, N. and Daraeepour, A. (2009) Design of Input Vector for Day-Ahead Price Forecasting of Electricity Markets. ExpertSystemswithApplications, 36, 12281-12294. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2009.04.059
[29]
Peng, H.C., Long, F.H. and Ding, C. (2005) Feature Selection Based on Mutual Information Criteria of Max-Dependency, Max-Relevance, and Min-Redundancy. IEEETransactionsonPatternAnalysisandMachineIntelligence, 27, 1226-1238. https://doi.org/10.1109/tpami.2005.159
[30]
Latham, P.E. and Nirenberg, S. (2005) Synergy, Redundancy, and Independence in Population Codes, Revisited. TheJournalofNeuroscience, 25, 5195-5206. https://doi.org/10.1523/jneurosci.5319-04.2005
[31]
Estevez, P.A., Tesmer, M., Perez, C.A. and Zurada, J.M. (2009) Normalized Mutual Information Feature Selection. IEEETransactionsonNeuralNetworks, 20, 189-201. https://doi.org/10.1109/tnn.2008.2005601
[32]
Amjady, N. and Keynia, F. (2011) A New Prediction Strategy for Price Spike Forecasting of Day-Ahead Electricity Markets. AppliedSoftComputing, 11, 4246-4256. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asoc.2011.03.024
[33]
Amjady, N. and Keynia, F. (2009) Day-ahead Price Forecasting of Electricity Markets by Mutual Information Technique and Cascaded Neuro-Evolutionary Algorithm. IEEETransactionsonPowerSystems, 24, 306-318. https://doi.org/10.1109/tpwrs.2008.2006997
[34]
Heydari, A., Majidi Nezhad, M., Pirshayan, E., Astiaso Garcia, D., Keynia, F. and De Santoli, L. (2020) Short-Term Electricity Price and Load Forecasting in Isolated Power Grids Based on Composite Neural Network and Gravitational Search Optimization Algorithm. AppliedEnergy, 277, Article ID: 115503. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2020.115503
[35]
Sideratos, G., Ikonomopoulos, A. and Hatziargyriou, N.D. (2020) A Novel Fuzzy-Based Ensemble Model for Load Forecasting Using Hybrid Deep Neural Networks. ElectricPowerSystemsResearch, 178, Article ID: 106025. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsr.2019.106025
[36]
Maldonado, S., González, A. and Crone, S. (2019) Automatic Time Series Analysis for Electric Load Forecasting via Support Vector Regression. AppliedSoftComputing, 83, Article ID: 105616. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asoc.2019.105616
[37]
Yang, A., Li, W. and Yang, X. (2019) Short-term Electricity Load Forecasting Based on Feature Selection and Least Squares Support Vector Machines. Knowledge-BasedSystems, 163, 159-173. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.knosys.2018.08.027
[38]
Zhang, J., Tan, Z. and Wei, Y. (2020) An Adaptive Hybrid Model for Short Term Electricity Price Forecasting. AppliedEnergy, 258, Article ID: 114087. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.114087
[39]
Yang, W., Wang, J., Niu, T. and Du, P. (2019) A Hybrid Forecasting System Based on a Dual Decomposition Strategy and Multi-Objective Optimization for Electricity Price Forecasting. AppliedEnergy, 235, 1205-1225. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2018.11.034
[40]
Baesmat, K.H., Masodipour, I. and Samet, H. (2021) Improving the Performance of Short-Term Load Forecast Using a Hybrid Artificial Neural Network and Artificial Bee Colony Algorithm Amélioration des performances de la prévision de la charge à court terme à l’aide d’un réseau neuronal artificiel hybride et d’un algorithme de colonies d’abeilles artificielles. IEEECanadianJournalofElectricalandComputerEngineering, 44, 275-282. https://doi.org/10.1109/icjece.2021.3056125
[41]
Agrawal, R.K., Muchahary, F. and Tripathi, M.M. (2019) Ensemble of Relevance Vector Machines and Boosted Trees for Electricity Price Forecasting. AppliedEnergy, 250, 540-548. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.05.062
[42]
Kim, T. and Cho, S. (2019) Predicting Residential Energy Consumption Using CNN-LSTM Neural Networks. Energy, 182, 72-81. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2019.05.230
[43]
Dong, Y., Ma, X. and Fu, T. (2021) Electrical Load Forecasting: A Deep Learning Approach Based on K-Nearest Neighbors. AppliedSoftComputing, 99, Article ID: 106900. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asoc.2020.106900
[44]
Chitalia, G., Pipattanasomporn, M., Garg, V. and Rahman, S. (2020) Robust Short-Term Electrical Load Forecasting Framework for Commercial Buildings Using Deep Recurrent Neural Networks. AppliedEnergy, 278, Article ID: 115410. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2020.115410
[45]
Uwimana, E., Zhou, Y. and Zhang, M. (2023) Long-term Electrical Load Forecasting in Rwanda Based on Support Vector Machine Enhanced with Q-SVM Optimization Kernel Function. JournalofPowerandEnergyEngineering, 11, 32-54. https://doi.org/10.4236/jpee.2023.118003
[46]
Amjady, N. and Nasiri-Rad, H. (2009) Nonconvex Economic Dispatch with AC Constraints by a New Real Coded Genetic Algorithm. IEEETransactionsonPowerSystems, 24, 1489-1502. https://doi.org/10.1109/tpwrs.2009.2022998