人口老龄化对养老金系统可持续性的影响——基于省级面板数据的实证研究
The Impact of Population Aging on the Sustainability of the Pension System—An Empirical Study Based on Provincial Panel Data

有效应对我国人口老龄化，事关国家发展全局，事关亿万百姓福祉。2035年远景目标纲要也强调，实施积极应对人口老龄化国家战略，来促进人口长期均衡发展。人口老龄化问题日益严重，在此背景下，本文通过构建面板数据模型，收集全国各省相关数据，实证分析人口老龄化对我国养老金系统可持续性的冲击。研究结果表明，人口老龄化会给我国养老金收支带来正向影响，但养老金支出受到的影响更为明显，呈增强趋势，当未来养老金支出超过收入时会产生失衡风险，最终影响养老金系统的可持续性。对此，本文提出优化人口结构、改革养老金制度等政策建议，以应对养老金系统失衡风险。
Effectively addressing the aging population in China is crucial to the overall development of the country and the well-being of hundreds of millions of people. The 2035 long-term goals outline also emphasizes the implementation of a national strategy to actively respond to population aging to promote long-term balanced development of the population. The issue of population aging urgently needs to be addressed. Against this backdrop, this paper constructs a panel data model, collects relevant data from various provinces nationwide, and empirically analyzes the impact of population aging on the sustainability of China’s pension system. The research results indicate that population aging has a positive impact on the income and expenditure of China’s pension system. However, the impact on pension expenditures is more significant and shows an increasing trend. When future pension expenditures exceed income, an imbalance risk will arise, ultimately affecting the sustainability of the pension system. Therefore, this paper proposes policy recommendations such as optimizing the population structure and reforming the pension system to address the risk of imbalance in the pension system.