|
|
大气污染物与CO2精细化协同减排效应及其与GDP耦合研究：以京津冀地区为例
|
Abstract:
京津冀面临着PM2.5、CO2减排的双重挑战，研究该地区CO2与PM2.5的协同控制效应及其排放量与经济发展的耦合关系，对经济绿色可持续发展与环境改善具有重要指导意义。但现有协同减排效应及相关耦合研究在空间分辨率和行业精细化程度上尚难以满足应用需求。文章采用高分辨率PM2.5、CO2和GDP分行业排放量(10 × 10 km)数据，利用协同控制效应坐标系法、耦合协调模型以及双变量自相关分析，评估该地区工业生产、运输、能源、农业和建筑五个行业CO2和PM2.5排放量的协同控制效应以及与GDP的耦合协调度，揭示京津冀地区减污降碳现状及其演变特征。结果显示：1) CO2和PM2.5协同控制效应呈现先上升–下降–上升的波动变化趋势，2010年时协同效应最优，PM2.5和CO2共同减排，2014年、2015年协同效应最差，PM2.5和CO2共同增排。2) 2000~2020年CO2排放与GDP增长的解耦状态多为弱解耦(20.5%)、隐性解耦(39.4%)和隐性耦合(38.5%)，呈现弱解耦状态主要集中于北部地区，中部地区大部分呈现隐性解耦，隐性耦合多分布于冀南地区；2000~2020年PM2.5排放和GDP强解耦状态逐渐从弱负解耦转变为强解耦。2000年，14.8%的地区强解耦，75.3%弱负解耦，到2020年，31.5%地区弱负解耦，63.8%强解耦。3) 2010~2020年建筑业碳排放和经济的耦合协调指标小于0.4处于严重失调状态，对京津冀碳排放和经济的耦合协调影响显著。4) PM2.5和CO2排放热点由京津冀中部和南部地区逐步集中到中部地区，且高排放和高GDP区域逐步转变为低排放和高GDP区域，主要贡献行业为运输业，主要集中在京津冀中部和环渤海等地区。本研究以期能够为京津冀未来行业结构优化方向、京津冀差异化协同减排发展路径，为我国不同发展阶段的各地区实现GDP与PM2.5、CO2排放的解耦和协同减排目标提供理论依据和科学支撑。
Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei is facing the double challenge of PM2.5 and CO2 emission reduction, and the study of the synergistic control effect of CO2 and PM2.5 in the region and the coupling relationship between their emissions and economic development is of great significance in guiding the green and sustainable development of the economy and environmental improvement. However, the existing synergistic emission reduction effect and related coupling studies are still difficult to meet the application requirements in terms of spatial resolution and industry refinement. In this paper, we use high-resolution PM2.5, CO2 and GDP emissions by industry (10 × 10 km) data, and utilize the synergistic control effect coordinate system method, the coupling coordination model, and bivariate autocorrelation analysis to assess the synergistic control effect of CO2 and PM2.5 emissions from five industries in the region, namely, industrial production, transportation, energy, agriculture, and construction, and the degree of coordination of the coupling with the GDP, and to reveal The current situation of pollution and carbon reduction in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and its evolution characteristics. The results show that: 1) CO2 and PM2.5
| [1] | Dong, H., Dai, H., Dong, L., Fujita, T., Geng, Y., Klimont, Z., et al. (2015) Pursuing Air Pollutant Co-Benefits of CO2 Mitigation in China: A Provincial Leveled Analysis. Applied Energy, 144, 165-174. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2015.02.020 |
| [2] | Andersson, A., Deng, J., Du, K., Zheng, M., Yan, C., Sköld, M., et al. (2015) Regionally-Varying Combustion Sources of the January 2013 Severe Haze Events over Eastern China. Environmental Science & Technology, 49, 2038-2043. https://doi.org/10.1021/es503855e |
| [3] | Guo, S., Hu, M., Zamora, M.L., Peng, J., Shang, D., Zheng, J., et al. (2014) Elucidating Severe Urban Haze Formation in China. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 111, 17373-17378. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1419604111 |
| [4] | Cao, J., Yang, C., Li, J., Chen, R., Chen, B., Gu, D., et al. (2011) Association between Long-Term Exposure to Outdoor Air Pollution and Mortality in China: A Cohort Study. Journal of Hazardous Materials, 186, 1594-1600. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhazmat.2010.12.036 |
| [5] | 朱潜挺, 王喜悦, 章姝, 等. 京津冀工业企业研发创新对碳排放强度的影响——基于规模和效率视角的实证研究[J/OL]. 科学学研究: 1-23. https://doi.org/10.16192/j.cnki.1003-2053.20240903.001, 2024-10-16. |
| [6] | 朱思梦. 京津冀及周边地区“2 + 26”城市空气质量及影响因素研究[D]: [硕士学位论文]. 沈阳: 辽宁大学, 2022. |
| [7] | Gao, X., Liu, N. and Hua, Y. (2022) Environmental Protection Tax Law on the Synergy of Pollution Reduction and Carbon Reduction in China: Evidence from a Panel Data of 107 Cities. Sustainable Production and Consumption, 33, 425-437. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.spc.2022.07.006 |
| [8] | 生态环境部发展改革委工业和信息化部住房城乡建设部交通运输部农业农村部能源局关于印发《减污降碳协同增效实施方案》的通知[J]. 中华人民共和国国务院公报, 2022(24): 42-49. |
| [9] | Zhang, X., Geng, Y., Shao, S., Song, X., Fan, M., Yang, L., et al. (2020) Decoupling PM2.5 Emissions and Economic Growth in China over 1998-2016: A Regional Investment Perspective. Science of The Total Environment, 714, Article ID: 136841. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.136841 |
| [10] | Guan, Y., Xiao, Y., Rong, B., Kang, L., Zhang, N. and Chu, C. (2023) Heterogeneity and Typology of the City-Level Synergy between CO2 Emission, PM2.5, and Ozone Pollution in China. Journal of Cleaner Production, 405, Article ID: 136871. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2023.136871 |
| [11] | 罗奇, 黄炜. 经济增长与环境保护协同共进:基于贸易政策不确定性下降的污染减排效应视角[J]. 财贸经济, 2024, 45(3): 127-143. |
| [12] | 杨添棋. 京津冀及周边地区大气污染防治政策的减污降碳协同效益分析研究[D]: [硕士学位论文]. 北京: 中国环境科学研究院, 2023. |
| [13] | 丘兆逸, 国金鑫, 梁松. 基于双网络视角的中国协同推进碳减排与经济发展路径研究[J]. 南宁师范大学学报(自然科学版), 2023, 40(3): 95-103. |
| [14] | Wu, Y., Zhou, Y. and Xu, B. (2022) Decoupling Relationship between Economic Growth and PM2.5 Emissions in the Transportation Sector in China: Regional Differences and Influencing Factors. Environmental Research Letters, 17, Article ID: 044065. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac5f2b |
| [15] | 李夏卿. 京津冀区域大气污染协同治理机制研究[D]: [博士学位论文]. 北京: 中共中央党校, 2021. |
| [16] | 杨静, 刘会娟, 吉庆华, 等. 降碳减污多维协同的基础科学问题[J]. 中国科学基金, 2023, 37(6): 1021-1026. |
| [17] | Cai, X., Zheng, S., Zhang, X., Ye, Z., Liu, C. and Tan, Z. (2024) The Impact of CO2 Emission Synergy on PM2.5 Emissions and a Dynamic Analysis of Health and Economic Benefits: A Case Study of China’s Transportation Industry. Journal of Cleaner Production, 471, Article ID: 143405. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2024.143405 |
| [18] | 李飞, 董珑, 孔少杰, 等. 我国省域CO2-PM2.5-O3时空关联效应与协同管控对策[J]. 中国环境科学, 2023, 43(12): 6246-6260. |
| [19] | Gu, B., Zhao, H., Li, X. and Zhang, Q. (2024) Moving towards Synergistic Reductions on PM2.5 and CO2 and Its Mechanism: A Case Study of Yangtze River Economic Belt, China. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 34, 1493-1512. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11442-024-2258-3 |
| [20] | 马丽梅, 张晓. 中国雾霾污染的空间效应及经济、能源结构影响[J]. 中国工业经济, 2014(4): 19-31. |
| [21] | Wang, Z. and Di, Z. (2024) Assessing of the County-Level Synergy between CO2 Emissions and PM2.5 Pollution in Shandong Province, China. International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13762-024-05861-9 |
| [22] | 毛显强, 邢有凯, 高玉冰, 等. 温室气体与大气污染物协同控制效应评估与规划[J]. 中国环境科学, 2021, 41(7): 3390-3398. |
| [23] | Bai, Z.F., Han, L., Liu, H.Q., Li, L.Z. and Jiang, X.H. (2023) Assessment of Coordinated Development between Urban Land Use Efficiency and Ecological Carrying Capacity: Case Study of the Cities in Inner Mongolia. Ecological Indicators, 155, Article ID: 110933. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2023.110933 |
| [24] | Tapio, P. (2005) Towards a Theory of Decoupling: Degrees of Decoupling in the EU and the Case of Road Traffic in Finland between 1970 and 2001. Transport Policy, 12, 137-151. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2005.01.001 |
| [25] | Zhang, Y., Zhu, T., Guo, H. and Yang, X. (2023) Analysis of the Coupling Coordination Degree of the Society-Economy-Resource-Environment System in Urban Areas: Case Study of the Jingjinji Urban Agglomeration, China. Ecological Indicators, 146, Article ID: 109851. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2022.109851 |
| [26] | Ma, M. and Tang, J. (2022) Interactive Coercive Relationship and Spatio-Temporal Coupling Coordination Degree between Tourism Urbanization and Eco-Environment: A Case Study in Western China. Ecological Indicators, 142, Article ID: 109149. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2022.109149 |
| [27] | 王少剑, 崔子恬, 林靖杰, 等. 珠三角地区城镇化与生态韧性的耦合协调研究[J]. 地理学报, 2021, 76(4): 973-991. |
| [28] | 王亚楠, 肖潇, 蒲金芳, 等. 40年来长江经济带“三生”空间时空演化特征[J]. 农业机械学报, 2022, 53(11): 215-225. |
| [29] | 昌晶亮, 余洪, 罗伟伟. 珠三角地区PM2.5浓度空间自相关分析[J]. 生态与农村环境学报, 2015, 31(6): 853-858. |
| [30] | 国民经济和社会发展第十个五年计划城镇化发展重点专项规划[J]. 中华人民共和国国务院公报, 2002(32): 21-26. |
| [31] | 杨力, 郑煜雨, 朱俊奇. 长江经济带数字经济与碳环境治理耦合协调的时空演变及驱动因素[J/OL]. 重庆理工大学学报(社会科学): 1-22. http://kns.cnki.net/kcms/detail/50.1205.T.20240910.1455.004.html, 2024-10-16. |
| [32] | 安敏, 王丽杰, 滕明月, 等. 京津冀地区PM2.5与CO2的协同控制效应及调控因素研究[J]. 环境科学与技术, 2024, 47(7): 63-73. |
| [33] | 唐浩, 佟孟华. 大气治理政策与资源型城市碳减排: 基于《大气污染防治行动计划》的视角[J]. 环境科学研究, 2024, 37(6): 1169-1180. |
| [34] | 都泊桦. 京津冀碳排放投入产出模型研究[D]: [博士学位论文]. 北京: 首都经济贸易大学, 2020. |
| [35] | 边宇, 蔺雪芹, 周笑, 等. 京津冀工业碳排放时空演化特征及影响因素[J]. 环境科学与技术, 2021, 44(11): 37-47. |
| [36] | 马潇颖. 京津冀地区碳中和关键因素减排固碳潜力研究[D]: [博士学位论文]. 北京: 华北电力大学,2022. |
| [37] | “十三五”环保规划出台京津冀、长三角、珠三角明确煤炭消费总量下降目标[J]. 中国煤炭工业, 2017(1): 10-11. |
| [38] | 孙雪松. 京津冀区域城镇化协调发展: 测度、时空分异及调控对策研究[D]: [博士学位论文]. 天津: 天津大学, 2021. |
| [39] | 谢永乐. 动态空间视域下京津冀大气污染协同治理绩效评价研究[D]: [博士学位论文]. 北京: 中央财经大学, 2021. |
| [40] | 陆小莉. 京津冀产业转型升级的效果评价与路径研究[D]: [博士学位论文]. 北京: 首都经济贸易大学, 2021. |
| [41] | 崔瑜. 中国农业碳足迹与经济发展协调性研究——纳入碳汇效应的分析[D]: [博士学位论文]. 咸阳: 西北农林科技大学,2022. |
| [42] | 李春成. “十一五”京津冀区域科技发展规划研究与制定[M]. 天津: 天津市科学研究所, 2009. |
| [43] | 林童尧. 我国重点行业碳排放驱动因素及脱钩效应研究[D]: [硕士学位论文]. 北京: 华北电力大学, 2021. |
| [44] | 胡一鸣. 京津冀地区建筑行业碳排放强度影响因素研究[D]: [硕士学位论文]. 北京: 北京交通大学, 2019. |
