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Finance 2024
我国房地产价格波动对系统性金融风险动态影响研究
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Abstract:
2021年以后，我国的房地产市场开始发生转变，整个房地产市场出现了量价双跌，即销售额和销售面积双双下跌。房地产行业与金融业高度关联，涉及主体众多，房地产金融体系又以商业银行为主，房价的不正常的下跌往往加速金融风险出现与暴漏。基于此，本文对系统性金融风险传导渠道进行研究，构建向量自回归分析模型，深入探讨了房价的波动是如何动态地影响系统性金融风险的。通过脉冲响应图确认了房价波动在系统性金融风险生成过程中所占据的核心位置。最后，基于实证结果和风险的传导机制，提出相应的政策确保房地产稳定发展。
After 2021, China’s real estate market began to undergo a transformation, and the entire real estate market experienced a double decline in quantity and price, with both sales revenue and sales area falling. The real estate industry is highly related to the financial industry, involving numerous entities, and the real estate financial system is mainly composed of commercial banks. Abnormal declines in housing prices often accelerate the emergence and leakage of financial risks. Based on this, this article studies the transmission channels of systemic financial risks, constructs a vector autoregressive analysis model, and deeply explores how fluctuations in housing prices dynamically affect systemic financial risks. The core position of housing price fluctuations in the process of systemic financial risk generation was confirmed through impulse response diagrams. Finally, based on empirical results and the transmission mechanism of risks, corresponding policies are proposed to ensure the stable development of the real estate industry.
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