双支柱调控框架下经济周期与金融周期的微波化研究
Research on the Microwave Transformation of Economic and Financial Cycles under the Dual Pillar Regulatory Framework

“货币政策 + 宏观审慎政策”双支柱调控框架是近年来我国货币政策框架的重大变革，而双支柱调控框架平抑经济周期与金融周期波动的有效性则是社会各界核心关切的。为此，本文首先将基于Bai and Wang (2011)的条件马尔可夫状态转移模型判断我国经济周期与金融周期波动形态的变化，然后分析双支柱调控框架对经济周期与金融周期的调节作用。结果显示：第一，在2008年金融危机后，我国经济周期延续了上个世纪90年代中期以来的微波化趋势，同时金融周期也出现了微波化趋势；第二，货币政策与宏观审慎政策在绝大多数时期能够有效地应对经济的内外部冲击，保障宏观经济平稳运行，但在个别年份，政策本身反而成为宏观经济波动的源泉；第三，数量型货币政策与以LTV上限代理的宏观审慎政策的有效性存在下降趋势，而价格型货币政策的有效性得以增强。基于这些结论，文章对如何完善双支柱调控框架提出了有益建议。
The two-pillar regulatory framework of “monetary policy + macro-prudential policy” is a major reform of China’s monetary policy framework in recent years, and the effectiveness of the two-pillar regulatory framework to stabilize the economic cycle and financial cycle fluctuations is a core concern of all sectors of society. For this reason, this paper firstly judges the changes of China’s economic cycle’ fluctuations and financial cycle’ fluctuations based on Conditional Markov State Transfer Model of Bai and Wang (2011), and then analyzes the adjustment effect of the two-pillar regulatory framework on economic cycle and financial cycle. The results show that: First, after the financial crisis in 2008, China’s economic cycle continued the trend of microwave since the mid-1990s, and the financial cycle also experienced a trend of microwave. Second, monetary policy and macro-prudential policies can effectively cope with internal and external economic shocks and ensure the stable operation of macro-economy during most of the time. However, in a few years, policies themselves have become the source of macro-economic fluctuations. Third, there is a downward trend in the effectiveness of quantitative monetary policies and macro-prudential policies with the upper limit of LTV, but the effectiveness of price-based monetary policies has increased. Based on these conclusions, the article put forward useful suggestions on how to perfect the two-pillar control framework.