FDI、出口贸易与经济增长——来自越南的证据
FDI, Export Trade and Economic Growth—Evidence from Vietnam

FDI对越南经济的显性影响，主要体现在经济增长与出口贸易方面。在全球经济受中美贸易战及疫情后果的影响之下，FDI的流入依然十分重要，所以保持外资的稳定性是政策追求的长期目标。其于此，本文根据越南2002~2023年的数据，通过构建VAR模型，对FDI、经济增长、出口贸易额进行回归分析。研究结果表明，FDI对越南经济增长、出口贸易额的影响呈现波动状态。但总体来看，FDI对越南经济增长和出口贸易额具有促进作用。研究也发现，经济增长、出口贸易额对FDI的影响比较大，尤其是出口额，在长期来看出口额对FDI的正面效应要大于经济增长的。
The dominant impact of FDI on Vietnam’s economy is mainly reflected in economic growth and export trade. Under the background of the global economy affected by the China-US trade war and the consequences of the epidemic (COVID 19), the inflow of FDI is very important, so maintaining the stability of foreign investment is a long-term goal of policy pursuit. In this regard, this paper, based on Vietnam’s data from 2002 to 2023, constructs a VAR model to conduct a regression analysis of FDI, economic growth, and export trade volume. The results show that the impact of FDI on Vietnam’s economic growth and export trade volume is fluctuating. But overall, FDI has a promoting effect on Vietnam’s economic growth and export trade volume. The result also shows that economic growth and export trade volume have a relatively large impact on FDI, especially export volume. In the long run, the positive effect of export volume on FDI is greater than that of economic growth.