The survival of agroforestry tree species in sub-Saharan Africa is essential for sustainable livelihoods, particularly in the semi-arid environment. Drought in the Agroecological zones (AEZ) of Nigeria is one of the environmental factors limiting parkland tree regeneration. Species distribution modelling offers the opportunity to predict future distributions of plant species based on current distribution data and bioclimatic variables. Maxent (maximum entropy) model was employed to predict the future tree distribution in AEZ parklands, under the four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) climate change prediction using current tree distribution (presence-only data) along a transect across three agroecological zones. The spatial data used were 19 bioclimatic variables and presence-only data for the two most important tree species—Parkia biglobosa and Vitellaria paradoxa. The result showed a drastic reduction (>45%) in the suitability of farmlands across predictions observed in the studied agroecological zones. The 2050 scenario in both species predicted areas had an increasing mid-range potential, over 44% lower suitability in sampled AEZ distribution predictions. The future prediction potential distribution maps for year 2070 of both species displayed large variations in suitability compared to 2050, showing a significant increase (up to 53%) in areas climatically suitable for both species to regenerate and thrive. This is attributed to over increased annual evapotranspiration, despite increasing seasonal precipitation. This study highlights the need for more climate-smart regeneration and improved restoration strategies to reduce land degradation as climate conditions change over time.
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