四川地区2023年夏末秋初的强降水过程的分析
Analysis of Heavy Precipitation Process in Sichuan Region in Late Summer and Early Fall of 2023

本文利用常规气象观测数据和葵花9号卫星产品，通过环流形势分析、物理量场分析与葵花9号云图分析，对2023年8月下旬和9月上旬四川地区两次降水过程进行对比分析。结果表明：1) 两次过程按主要影响系统可分为南海台风型、副热带高压型。2) 高时空分辨率的葵花卫星云图可清晰分辨对流云边界与轮廓，更容易判断对流发展的阶段、强度变化与移动方向。3) 对流云从初生到产生强降水的发展特征主要可分为单独对流云过程与有对流云融合过程两类。4) 最低红外亮温低于210 K且观测到红外亮温快速下降、红外与水汽亮温同步降低至212 K以下、红外与水汽亮温差降低至2 K以下这三个特征可在副热带高压型的强降水过程中观测到，使用这三个特征来预测四川地区强降水产生时间，提高预测的准确性。
The Himawari-9 satellite data and conventional observation data are used to analyze the heavy precipitation process in Sichuan in late summer and early fall of 2023, using circulation situation analysis, physical quantity field analysis and cloud image analysis. The results show that: 1) the two processes can be categorized into the South China Sea typhoon type, and the Western Pacific Subtropical High type according to the main influencing systems. 2) The high temporal and spatial resolution of the Himawari satellite cloud image can clearly distinguish the boundary and outline of the convective cloud, which makes it easier to judge the stage of convective development, intensity change and moving direction. 3) The development characteristics of convective clouds from the initial generation to the production of heavy precipitation can be divided into two categories. 4) The three features of the minimum TBB13 below 210 K and the observed rapid decrease of TBB13, the simultaneous decrease of TBB13 and TBB8 below 212 K, and the decrease of the difference between TBB13 and TBB8 below 2 K can be observed in heavy precipitation processes the Western Pacific Subtropical High type, which can be utilized to improving the accuracy of predicting the generation of heavy precipitation in Sichuan.