基于多元统计分析对重庆人均GDP的分析与预测
Analysis and Prediction of Chongqing’s per Capita GDP Based on Multivariate Statistical Analysis

人均GDP是衡量一个国家或地区经济状况的有效指标，及时了解人均GDP的发展动态对一个国家或地区至关重要。本文通过多元统计分析方法，对重庆市的人均GDP进行描述统计分析及时间序列分析。首先，通过描述统计分析考察重庆直辖以来人均GDP的发展趋势、产业结构变化情况及与优势省市对比，找出发展不充分的行业及人口结构的劣势；其次，通过时间序列分析对重庆市1998年到2022年的人均GDP进行平稳化处理和纯随机性检验，确定ARIMA(0, 2, 2)模型，预测重庆市未来5年人均GDP；最后，根据重庆市人均GDP的发展特征及预测结果提出建议。
Per capita GDP is an effective indicator to measure the economic status of a country or region, and it is crucial to keep abreast of the development dynamics of per capita GDP for a country or region. This article utilizes multivariate statistical analysis methods to conduct descriptive statistical analysis and time series analysis on Chongqing’s per capita GDP. Firstly, through descriptive statistical analysis, the development trend of per capita GDP since Chongqing’s establishment as a municipality, changes in industrial structure, and comparisons with advantageous provinces and cities are examined to identify underdeveloped industries and disadvantages in population structure. Secondly, through time series analysis, the stabilization processing and pure randomness test of Chongqing’s per capita GDP from 1998 to 2022 are conducted to determine the ARIMA(0, 2, 2) model and predict Chongqing’s per capita GDP for the next five years. Finally, based on the development characteristics and prediction results of Chongqing’s per capita GDP, suggestions are put forward.