重庆市绿色信贷推动产业结构升级的实证研究
The Empirical Study of Green Credit Promoting Upgrading of the Industrial Structure in Chongqing

我国经济已由高速增长阶段转向高质量发展阶段，绿色发展理念是高质量发展的内涵之一，要改善生产过程中对环境造成的诸如空气污染、水资源短缺等负面影响，实现可持续发展。从宏观层面看，产业结构的优化升级是绿色经济的体现，绿色信贷是以生态经济为引导的重要金融工具，通过影响微观企业的融资对企业生产经营产生约束或对其转型升级产生鼓励，从而助推产业结构升级。重庆市作为传统重工业型城市，积极贯彻落实绿色发展理念，推动产业结构升级。本文利用重庆市2017年投入产出表对重庆市金融业对传统高耗能、高污染行业的推动和拉动效应进行现状分析，并选取2008~2020年的重庆市时间序列数据进行灰色关联分析和多元线性回归分析，基于实证结果得出，绿色信贷可以正向推动产业结构升级。基于实证结果，本文建议绿色政策以政府和银行业金融机构组织合作为重点，进一步提高贷款精准度，并不断完善银行绿色信贷体系、加大政府财政对绿色生态资金扶持。
China’s economy has shifted from the stage of high-speed growth to the stage of high-quality development, and the concept of green development is one of the connotations of high-quality development. It is necessary to improve the negative impact on the environment such as air pollution and water shortage caused by the production process to achieve sustainable development. From the macro level, the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure is the embodiment of green economy. Green credit is an important financial tool guided by ecological economy. By influencing the financing of micro-enterprises, it can restrict the production and operation of enterprises or encourage their transformation and upgrading, thus boosting the upgrading of industrial structure. As a traditional heavy industry city, Chongqing actively implements the green development concept and promotes upgrading of the industrial structure. This paper uses the input-output table of Chongqing in 2017 to analyze the current situation of the push and pull effects of Chongqing’s financial industry on traditional industries with high energy consumption and high pollution, and selects the time series data of Chongqing from 2008 to 2020 for grey correlation analysis and multiple linear regression analysis. The empirical results show that, the implementation of green credit has a positive driving significance for the upgrading of industrial structure. In order to continue to promote the vigorous development of green credit and promote the optimization and upgrading of product structure, it is suggested that the green policy should focus on the cooperation between the government and banking financial institutions, further increase the precision of loans, constantly improve the green credit system of banks, and increase the government’s financial support for green ecology.