新型城镇化与乡村振兴的耦合协调发展研究——基于广西14个地级市面板数据
Research on the Coupled and Coordinated Development of New Urbanization and Rural Revitalization—Based on Panel Data of 14 Prefecture-Level Cities in Guangxi

如何推进新型城镇化和乡村全面振兴有机结合、协调发展，促进各类要素双向流动，形成城乡融合发展新格局，具有重要现实意义和理论价值。本文以2010~2022年广西14个地级市乡村振兴与新型城镇化的相关面板数据以实证分析对象，构建其综合评价体系，利用熵权法和TOPSIS方法计算指标权重，获得其综合评价值。在此基础上，利用耦合协调度，面板平稳性检验、PVAR模型、Kao协整检验、格兰杰因果关系、脉冲响应函数和方差分解等进行实证研究。结果表明：广西各地级市的新型城镇化与乡村振兴之间存在长期协整关系。在2010年~2022年期间南宁的新型城镇化与乡村振兴之间的耦合协调度达到良好协调水平，其余地级市普遍达到中级协调，除了在2020年，2021年以及2022年，防城港因疫情影响耦合协调度下降到了低级协调，新型城镇化与乡村振兴之间不存在格兰杰原因。最后，提出了一些政策性建议。
How to promote the organic combination and coordinated development of new urbanization and comprehensive rural revitalization, promote the two-way flow of various factors, and form a new pattern of urban-rural integration development, has important practical significance and theoretical value. This article uses panel data related to rural revitalization and new urbanization in 14 prefecture-level cities in Guangxi from 2010 to 2022 as the empirical analysis object, constructs a comprehensive evaluation system, uses entropy weight method and TOPSIS method to calculate indicator weights, and obtains their comprehensive evaluation values. On this basis, empirical research is conducted using coupling co-scheduling, panel stationarity test, PVAR model, Kao cointegration test, Granger causality, impulse response function, and variance decomposition. The results indicate that there is a long-term cointegration relationship between the new urbanization and rural revitalization in various prefecture-level cities in Guangxi. The coupling coordination between the new urbanization and rural revitalization in Nanning reached a good level of coordination between 2010 and 2022, while other prefecture-level cities generally reached intermediate coordination. Except for 2020, 2021, and 2022, the coupling coordination of Fangchenggang decreased to a lower level due to the impact of the epidemic. There is no Granger reason between new urbanization and rural revitalization. Finally, some policy recommendations were put forward.