阴山南麓一次局地灾害性强对流暴雨成因及可预报性分析
Analysis on the Cause and Forecastability of a Local Catastrophic Severe Convective Rainstorm at the Southern Foot of Yinshan Mountain

综合使用常规Micaps资料、临河雷达ROSE资料等，对2022年8月6日阴山南麓一次局地灾害性强对流暴雨过程进行了分析，重点讨论了过程发生的中尺度环境条件时空演变特征及暴雨成因。结果表明：副高快速南落使短期内其原控制区对流层中高层对雷暴发展有很大抑制作用的下沉气流消失，但低层暖湿高能状态仍然维持；大范围对流抑制、高海拔地区小量抬升可释放凝结潜热的不稳定性空间分布为灾害性山洪的发生提供了有利的大气层结背景条件；布格提谷地使地面变性高压前部爬坡的西北气流汇聚增强，在阴山北麓局地触发强对流单体；率先翻山的强对流单体产生的冷出流顺山洪沟而下与因山脉分流而加强的暖湿气流在阴山南麓局地对峙加剧了强对流的发展；最佳抬升层较高时，模式800 hPa风场在分析阴山地形作用时有较强指示作用。
Using conventional Micaps data and ROSE data of Linhe radar, the process of a local severe convective rainstorm at the southern foot of Yinshan Mountain on August 6, 2022 was analyzed, focusing on the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of mesoscale environmental conditions and the causes of the rainstorm. The results show that the rapid south fall of the subtropical high makes the downflow disappear in the short term, but the low-level warm and wet high-energy state is still maintained; the unstable spatial distribution of large-scale convection suppression and small uplift that can release condensation latent heat in high altitude areas provides favorable background conditions for the occurrence of catastrophic mountain floods; the Bugti valley enhances the convergence of the northwest airflow at the front of the ground, In the north foot of Yinshan local trigger strong convection monomer; the cold outflow of the strong convection monomer produced by the first mountain over the mountain and the warm and humid air flow strengthened by the diversion of the mountain area at the southern foot of Yin Mountain intensified the development of strong convection; when the optimal lifting layer is higher, mode 800 hPa wind field has a strong indicator effect in the analysis of Yinshan terrain effect.