基于ARIMA模型的地区国内旅游人数研究——以云南省为例
Research on the Number of Domestic Tourists in a Region Based on ARIMA Model—Taking Yunnan Province as an Example

云南旅游资源丰富且得天独厚，经过多年的发展云南旅游业已成为国民经济中的支柱产业，作为国内主要目的地，2023年，云南国内旅游人数已突破10亿人次，当前正值启动“十五五”规划的起步阶段，如何科学预测云南国内旅游人数趋势，是一项重要课题。本文通过对2010~2023年云南省国内游客季度数据的研究，运用时间序列模型中ARIMA模型进行拟合，选取拟合模型中最优的模型ARIMA (2, 1, 3)，得到拟合函数，并预测未来3年云南省国内旅游人数季度趋势，以此给予政府在接下来经济规划中提供相关建议。
Yunnan has abundant and unique tourism resources. After years of development, Yunnan tourism has become a pillar industry in the national economy. As a major destination in China, the number of domestic tourists in Yunnan has exceeded 1 billion in 2023. Currently, it is in the initial stage of launching the “15th Five Year Plan”. How to scientifically predict the trend of domestic tourists in Yunnan is an important issue. This article studies the quarterly data of domestic tourists in Yunnan Province from 2010 to 2023, uses the ARIMA model in the time series model for fitting, selects the best model in the fitting model ARIMA (2, 1, 3), obtains the fitting function, and predicts the quarterly trend of domestic tourists in Yunnan Province in the next three years, in order to provide relevant suggestions for the government in future economic planning.