Climate variability as occasioned by conditions such as extreme rainfall and temperature, rainfall cessation, and irregular temperatures has considerable impact on crop yield and food security. This study develops a predictive model for cassava yield (Manihot esculenta Crantz) amidst climate variability in rainfed zone of Enugu State, Nigeria. This study utilized data of climate variables and tonnage of cassava yield spanning from 1971 to 2012; as well as information from a questionnaire and focus group discussion from farmers across two seasons in 2023 respectively. Regression analysis was employed to develop the predictive model equation for seasonal climate variability and cassava yield. The rainfall and temperature anomalies, decadal change in trend of cassava yield and opinion of farmers on changes in rainfall season were also computed in the study. The result shows the following relationship between cassava and all the climatic variables: R2 = 0.939; P = 0.00514; Cassava and key climatic variables: R2 = 0.560; P = 0.007. The result implies that seasonal rainfall, temperature, relative humidity, sunshine hours and radiation parameters are key climatic variables in cassava production. This is supported by computed rainfall and temperature anomalies which range from ？478.5 to 517.8 mm as well as ？1.2？C to 2.3？C over the years. The questionnaire and focus group identified that farmers experienced at one time or another, late onset of rain, early onset of rain or rainfall cessation over the years. The farmers are not particularly sure of rainfall and temperature characteristics at any point in time. The implication of the result of this study is that rainfall and temperature parameters determine the farming season and quantity of productivity. Hence, there is urgent need to address the situation through effective and quality weather forecasting network which will help stem food insecurity in the study area and Nigeria at large. The study made recommendations such as a comprehensive early warning system on climate variability incidence which can be communicated to local farmers by agro-meteorological extension officers, research on crops that can grow with little or no rain, planning irrigation scheme, and improving tree planting culture in the study area.
References
[1]
Adejoro, M. A. (2001). An Economy Ravaged: A People Outraged. O.A.U. Press.
[2]
Anyaegbu, C. N., Okpara, K. E., Taweepreda, W., Akeju, D., Kuaanan, T., Onyeneke, R. U., Poshyachinda, S., & Pongpiachan, W. (2022). Impact of Climate Change on Cassava Yield in Nigeria: An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Bound Approach. Agriculture, 13, Article 80. https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture13010080
[3]
Barnett, J. (2011). Dangerous Climate Change in the Pacific Islands: Food Production and Food Security. Journal of Regional Environmental Change, 11, 229-237. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-010-0160-2
[4]
Beckford, C. L., & Campbell, D. R. (2013). Climate Change, Hazard Vulnerability, Food Production, and Food Security in the Caribbean, Domestic Food Production and Food Security in the Caribbean. In C. L. Beckford, & D. R. Campbell (Eds.), Domestic Food Production and Food Security in the Caribbean (pp. 125-135). Palgrave Macmillan. https://doi.org/10.1057/9781137296993_10
[5]
Challinor, A. (2014). Climate Change Will Reduce Crop Yields Sooner Than We Thought. Journal Nature Climate Change Published in IPCC Report. The Event is Co-Organised by University of Leeds.
[6]
FAO (2003). The State of Food and Agriculture 2003-04.
FAO (2008). Climate Change and Food Security a Framework Document.FAO, Rome, 50-62.
[9]
Glantz, M., Betsill, M., & Crandall, K. (1997). Food Security in Southern Africa: Assessing the Use and Value of ENSO Information. NOAA Project.
[10]
Hopkin, J. S. (1999).Impact of Climate on Agriculture.World Climate Programme, Application and Service.
[11]
Igbozulike, U. M. (1986). Nigerian’s Threatened Environment: A National Profile. Nigeria Environmental Study Action Team (Nest).
[12]
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (1996). Impacts, Adaptations and Mitigations of Climate Change. In R.T. Waston, M.C. Zinyowere, & R.H. Moss (Eds.), Scientific and Technical Analysis: Contribution of working Group II to the Second Assessment Report of IPCC. Cambridge University Press.
[13]
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2004). Climate Change 2004: The Scientific Basis IPCC Working Group 1. Cambridge University Press.
[14]
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007). Climate change: Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. IPCC Working Group II.
[15]
Katz, R. W., & Brown, B. G. (1992). Extreme Events in a Changing Climate: Variability Is More Important than Averages. Climatic Change Journal, 21, 289-302. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00139728
[16]
Maharjan, K. L., & Joshi, N. P. (2013). Effects of Climate Change on Regional Agriculture Production, Food Price and Food Insecurity. In K. L. Maharjan, & N. P. Joshi (Eds.), Climate Change, Agriculture and Rural Livelihoods in Developing Countries(pp. 93-103). Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-4-431-54343-5_7
[17]
Melkonyyan, H., Khachatryan, L., Melkonyan, A., & Khalatyan, E. (2005). The Forecast of Agricultiural Harvest in Armenia with Calculation of Climate Variability. In Technical Conference, “Climate as a Resource” (pp. 109-114). World Meteorological Organization.
[18]
Moreno P., Hoogenboom, G., & Cock, J. H. (2021). Modeling Growth, Development and Yield of Cassava: A Review. Field Crops Research, 267, Article ID: 108140. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fcr.2021.108140
Nigeria Meteorological Service (NIMET) (2012). Annual Weather Observation Record,Oshodi, Lagos.
[21]
Ogbuene, E. B. (2010). Impact of Meteorological Parameters on Rice Yield: An apProach for Environmental Resource Sustainability in Ebonyi Rice Farmland, Nigeria. Journal of Environmental Issues and Agriculture in Developing Countries, 2, 103-116.
[22]
Pushpalatha, R., & Gangadharan, B, (2021). Assessing the Influence of Climate Model Biases in Predicting yield and Irrigation Requirement of Cassava. Earth Systems and Environment, 7, 307-315. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40808-020-01038-8
[23]
Salisu, L. H. (2013). Climate Change and Food Security in Kano Nigeria: A Model for Sustainable Food Production. In M. Behnassi, O. Pollmann, & G. Kissinger (Eds.), Sustainable Food Security in the Era of Local and Global Environmental Change (pp.99-113). Springer.
[24]
Sundström, J. F., Albihn, A., Boqvist, S., Ljungvall, K., Marstorp, H., Martiin, C., Nyberg, K., Vågsholm, I., Yuen, J., & Magnusson, U. (2014). Future Threats to Agricultural Food Production Posed by Environmental Degradation, Climate Change, and Animal and Plant Diseases—A Risk Analysis in Three Economic and Climate Settings. Food Security Journal, 6, 201-215. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12571-014-0331-y
[25]
Wilcox, D. (2006). Manitoba Not Yielding to Climate Change. In Manitoba Agronomists. Conference 2006 Proceedings (pp. 45-59). Faculty of Agricultural and Food Sciences, University of Manitoba.
[26]
WMO (2009). Issue of Climate Variability and Agriculture. Bulletin of World ClimateConferences, 58, 139-140.
[27]
Wu, W B., Verburg, P. H., & Tang, H. J. (2014). Climate Change and the Food Production System: Impacts and Adaptation in China. Regional Environmental Change, 14, 1-5. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-013-0528-1
[28]
Zakaria, A. I., & Keshav, L. M. (2014). Crop Substitution Behavior among Food Crop Farmers in Ghana: An Efficient Adaptation to Climate Change or Costly Stagnation in Traditional Agricultural Production System? Agricultural and Food Economics, 2, Article No. 16.
