我国省际间城镇职工养老保险可持续性及其影响因素分析
Analysis of the Sustainability and Influencing Factors of Urban Employee Pension Insurance among Provinces in China

城镇职工养老保险基金作为我国养老保险体系的重要支柱之一，直接影响着民生福祉和经济社会稳定。本文从城镇职工养老保险基金收入、支出、累计结余方面出发，通过构建城镇职工养老保险可持续性比值型指标，运用空间杜宾和向量自回归模型，分析2001~2022年我国31个省市城镇职工养老保险可持续性影响因素，并进行预测。研究表明，参加养老保险人数、离退休参加养老保险人数、养老保险基金收入以及养老保险基金支出均对养老保险可持续性产生显著影响，并表现出空间溢出效应。并且养老保险可持续性的预测结果显示全国城镇基本养老保险将保持可持续发展状态。分省来看，未来10年北京将继续保持可持续发展。而湖北、江西、青海等省将面临养老保险不可持续的问题。
As one of the important pillars of China’s pension insurance system, the urban employee pension insurance fund directly affects people’s livelihood and economic and social stability. Starting from the income, expenditure, and cumulative balance of the urban employee pension insurance fund, this article analyzes the influencing factors of the sustainability of urban employee pension insurance in China’s 31 provinces and cities from 2001 to 2022 by constructing ratio-based indicators for the sustainability of urban employee pension insurance and using spatial Durbin and vector autoregressive models. The research shows that the number of people participating in pension insurance, the number of retired people participating in pension insurance, pension insurance fund income, and pension insurance fund expenditure all have a significant impact on the sustainability of pension insurance and show spatial spillover effects. In addition, the forecast results of pension insurance sustainability indicate that the national urban basic pension insurance will maintain a sustainable development status. From the perspective of provinces, Beijing will continue to maintain sustainable development in the next 10 years. However, provinces such as Hubei, Jiangxi, and Qinghai will face the problem of unsustainable pension insurance.