应急管理数字化发展水平的动态测评
Dynamic Evaluation of Digital Development Level of Emergency Management

应急管理数字化发展对于推动国家应急管理体系现代化建设具有重要意义。本文以TOE为分析框架构建我国应急管理数字化发展水平指标体系，运用动态因子分析法，测评2018~2021年我国31个省(自治区、直辖市)应急管理数字化发展水平。通过对我国应急管理数字化发展水平测评，揭示我国应急管理数字化发展的区域差异与动态变化规律。研究显示：1) 从横向区域差异来看，我国应急管理数字化发展水平可划分为优秀、良好、一般和较差4个等级，总体呈现东、中、西部逐步递减的分布格局。2) 从纵向动态变化来看，我国应急管理数字化发展水平纵向变化趋势可划分为上升、下降、平稳和波动4种类型。
The digital development of emergency management is of great significance in promoting the modernization of national emergency management system. Based on TOE framework, this paper constructs an index system for the digital development level of China’s emergency management, and applies dynamic factor analysis to evaluate the digital development level of emergency management in 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government) from 2018 to 2021. Through the evaluation of the digital development level of China’s emergency management, this paper aims to reveal the regional differences and dynamic changes of the digital development of China’s emergency management. The results show that: 1) From the perspective of horizontal regional differences, the digital development level of China’s emergency management can be divided into four levels: excellent, good, general and poor, showing a gradually decreasing distribution pattern in the east, middle and west. 2) From the perspective of vertical dynamic change, the vertical change trend of the digital development level of China’s emergency management can be divided into four types: rising, falling, stable and fluctuating.